Two of the most successful programs in Division I college basketball will square off Friday night in Philadelphia. Carolina and UCLA have appeared in a combined 39 Final Fours and won more than 4,000 total games and 17 NCAA championships. Had everything gone according to plan, this would be the second time the Tar Heels and Bruins have faced off this season. However, the first meeting was called off due to COVID protocols within UCLA’s program. Now, the teams are meeting in the NCAA Tournament for just the third time. If you aren’t familiar with the Bruins, here’s a quick round-up:
Head coach: Mick Cronin. Cronin is in his third season with the Bruins, after having led them to the Final Four last season. Cronin has seen success at each of his head coaching stops, having taken both Murray State and Cincinnati (his alma mater) to the NCAA Tournament.
What’s the history? Carolina has won 10 of 13 games with UCLA since the 1949-50 season. The Tar Heels have won each of the past five meetings, all by double digits. The teams split their two games in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins won the 1968 national title game on the strength of 34 points and 16 rebounds from Lew Alcindor (later Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), while the Tar Heels won in the second round of the 1989 tournament. Current UNC assistant coach Jeff Lebo scored 12 points in the win.
Player to watch: Jaime Jaquez. Jaquez is Mr. Everything for UCLA this season, ranking second on the team in scoring (14 points per game) and first in rebounding (5.7 per game). However, Jaquez’s health is an issue as UCLA heads east. He exited the Bruins’ second-round win against Saint Mary’s on Saturday with an ankle injury and did not return to the game. Cronin has said he has two game plans for the UNC game: “one with [Jaquez], one without him,” according to a report in the Daily Bruin. However, a video posted this week by Bruin Report showed Jaquez walking without an obvious limp as UCLA prepared to depart for Philadelphia.
#UCLA’s Jaime Jaquez walking to the bus on campus, taking the team to the airport Tuesday, and off to the Sweet 16. pic.twitter.com/hPcMknYRkO
— Bruin Report Online (@BruinReport) March 22, 2022
Jaquez has played in all but one game for UCLA this season. He is one of three Bruin guards, all starters, listed at six feet, six inches. If he is unavailable on Friday, lockdown defender Leaky Black would likely guard UCLA’s leading scorer Johnny Juzang. If Jaquez does play, Black could split time between them.
Stats to watch: Like Baylor, UCLA is elite on both offense and defense, ranking in the top 15 in efficiency on both sides of the ball, according to Kenpom.com. Houston and Gonzaga are the only other teams still alive in the tournament who rank as highly in both statistics.
UCLA plays a very deliberate style of basketball, ranking 271st in the nation in tempo. The Bruins average just about 65 possessions per game, while UNC averages around 70, which ranks 32nd in the country. Should the game be played at UCLA’s pace, Carolina cannot afford to turn the ball over as many times as it did against Baylor. The fewer possessions there are, the more valuable the basketball becomes. UNC went 8-2 this season against teams which play as slow or slower than the Bruins (Boston College, Furman, Appalachian State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Virginia), averaging just fewer than 10 turnovers in those games.
One of the reasons for UCLA’s offensive efficiency is the Bruins take care of the basketball: UCLA turns the ball over just nine times per game, which is the second-best mark in the country. It should come as no surprise that the Bruins only give up about 4.5 steals per game, minimizing fast break opportunities for the opponent. Carolina scored a combined 29 points on the fast break and 21 points off turnovers in its wins against Marquette and Baylor. Meanwhile, UCLA only allowed a combined 10 fast break points and 15 points off turnovers in its first- and second-round wins.
Old school: This year’s iteration of the Bruins would make the legendary John Wooden proud. UCLA plays a throwback style of basketball, starting three juniors and two seniors (unless Jaquez can’t play). They return 92 percent of both minutes played and points scored from last season’s Final Four team. More than that, UCLA relies heavily on the two-point shot, ranking in the nation’s top 15 in two-pointers per game and 278th in three-pointers per game. Jaquez is particularly deadly from mid-range, shooting 53.2 percent on twos and just 28.8 percent on threes. Every primary starter for UCLA shoots at least 45 percent on two-pointers.
What are the odds? As of Thursday morning, UCLA is a 2.5-point favorite in the game. UNC has gone 4-5 as the betting underdog this season, including Saturday’s win against Baylor as five-point underdogs.
Featured image via UCLA Athletics
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