How UNC Can Make The College Football Playoff

Didn’t think we’d be saying this after the South Carolina game, but here we are: there’s one week left until bowl selection time, and UNC still has a shot at the College Football Playoff.

Carolina currently sits at no. 11 in both the AP and coaches’ polls – I’m writing this on Saturday night – but they’ll be in the top 10 when the new polls come out. They’ll leap over Baylor, Oklahoma State and Florida, maybe Notre Dame too, and they’ll come in somewhere between no. 7 and no. 9. The CFP ranking is the one that matters, though, and those voters haven’t been as kind to Carolina so far: heading into this week, UNC was still sitting all the way down at no. 14.

But that’s going to change. After this week, with Notre Dame, Baylor, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Florida all losing, the CFP Top 10 is going to end up looking something like this:

1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Oklahoma
4 Iowa
5 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
7 Stanford
8 Florida State
9 UNC
10 Notre Dame

…with Baylor, TCU, Ole Miss and Florida just outside the top 10.

Number nine is great. But it’s the top four teams who make it to the College Football Playoff, and there’s only one week left before the teams are chosen. Can UNC jump five spots in a week?

Yes, they can.

Six of those top nine teams all play on Saturday the 5th: UNC faces Clemson in the ACC title game; Alabama takes on Florida for the SEC title; Iowa plays Michigan State for the Big 10 championship; and Stanford meets Southern Cal for the Pac 12 title.

The Iowa/MSU game is irrelevant. For UNC to make the top four, just three things have to happen:

1) UNC beats Clemson for the ACC title.
2) Southern Cal upsets Stanford in the Pac-12.
3) Florida upsets Alabama in the SEC.

If all that should transpire, then Carolina would likely pass Clemson, Stanford, Alabama, and Florida State in the rankings, plus whichever team loses the Iowa/Michigan State game. (Personally I’ll be rooting for the Spartans to win that one, but for our purposes it doesn’t matter which.) That should leave the final rankings looking like this:

1 Oklahoma
2 Iowa or Michigan State
3 Ohio State
4 UNC

…and we’ll all be going to Miami or Dallas to play on New Year’s Eve.

So let’s root for three upsets, y’all. Southern Cal over Stanford, Florida over Alabama, and then look for Carolina to bring it home on Saturday night. (And then pray the CFP committee doesn’t do something silly, like drop Clemson only to no. 4 and leave the Heels on the outside looking in.)

But of course there’s a downside. Should the Tar Heels lose to Clemson on Saturday, they can still make one of the “New Year’s Six” bowls, probably the Peach Bowl in Atlanta on New Year’s Eve – but their chances of making the Peach Bowl actually go up if those other upsets don’t happen. Otherwise, UNC may end up in Orlando instead, at the Russell Athletic Bowl on December 29. Still nice – but not quite the same feather in their cap.

So, go ahead and root for the upsets on Saturday. But only if you’re sure.

How UNC Can Make The College Football Playoff

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