PPP: House Bill 2 Will Have Big Impact in November Election

North Carolina politics has been in the spotlight over the last week with the passing of House Bill 2.

The North Carolina General Assembly called a special session last Wednesday to pass House Bill 2, which GOP leadership referred to as “common sense” legislation and LGBT advocates called “the worst anti-LGBT legislation in the nation.”

The bill overturned a Charlotte decision to extend the city’s nondiscrimination ordinance to the LGBT community.

Leadership in the legislature quickly said they would consider a special session to repeal the ordinance.

Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling director, said a survey conducted before the session was called showed that would be an unpopular move among those surveyed.

“Definitely a situation where we found very limited support for the General Assembly, kind of, getting involved in Charlotte’s business,” Jensen said.

The survey showed 25 percent of voters thought the General Assembly should override Charlotte’s anti-discrimination ordinance, in the poll taken before the special session was called. The thought that the ordinance should be left as-is went across party lines with Democrats (58/17), Independents (48/21) and Republicans (45/38).

The legislation passed in a hurried session that began with the bill being made public around 10 o’clock Wednesday morning and was signed into law less than 12 hours later.

Reaction came in quickly from many high-profile businesses in North Carolina opposing the legislation and Jensen provided a fairly straightforward explanation of House Bill 2’s impact in the November election, saying, “It’ll be big.”

In those fall general elections, Jensen said a common theme is continuing among North Carolinians.

“We’re just an incredibly divided state,” Jensen said. “And when it comes to all of these key statewide offices, we’re seeing very tight contests right now.”

The race for Governor in North Carolina is expected to be one of the closest, and most expensive, races in the country in November. Jensen said the incumbent Pat McCrory had a two-point lead over Attorney General Roy Cooper in the race for the governor’s mansion in the first poll since the primary election, which was conducted before the passing of House Bill 2.

Jensen said McCrory does lead Cooper, even though McCrory’s approval rating continues to be low with 40 percent of those surveyed approving of the job McCrory has done and 49 percent disapproving.

“Voters are open to replacing Pat McCrory because they don’t like him very much,” Jensen said. “But they don’t know Cooper well enough yet to know if they think that he’s a better alternative. So, that’s what we’ll figure out over the next seven and a half months.”

Facts And Myths (That McCrory Forgot) About House Bill 2

Jensen said races for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and Treasurer in the Tar Heel state are all within three points among the general election candidates, exemplifying the polarization among North Carolinians.

One out-of-state factor that could influence North Carolina elections is who is at the top of the ticket on the November ballot.

Jensen said that if Donald Trump wins the GOP nomination and Republican incumbent Richard Burr supports Trump, then that will have a negative impact on Burr’s electability.

“That makes voters less inclined to vote for him by a 26-point spread,” Jensen said. “Forty-eight percent of voters in the state say that they’re less likely to vote for Burr if he supports Trump, only 22 percent say that they’re more likely to vote for him.”

One thing that is obvious in the results is that the November election will be a close, expensive and influential race at nearly ever level in the Tar Heel state.

See the full results from the PPP survey here.

PPP: House Bill 2 Will Have Big Impact in November Election

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