With Election Day in full swing, 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck spoke with Tom Jensen, the Director of Public Policy Polling, about what to expect in North Carolina as the final ballots are submitted and election results roll in Tuesday night.
In the days leading up to the election, Jensen said he’s seen a pretty consistent picture in North Carolina with Joe Biden and other Democratic candidates ahead in the polls.
“The consensus of the polls is about a three or four point margin for Biden,” Jensen said. “The U.S. Senate race certainly does seem to have tightened some. We found Cal Cunningham leading Thom Tillis by three points. Earlier in the year that was more up at like six or seven points, so it seems like Cal Cunningham’s personal difficulties have taken a little bit of a toll.”
Jensen said the races in North Carolina are relatively close enough where they could swing either way, although Democrats do consistently have an advantage in the polls.
In terms of the state governor’s race, Jensen said the only mystery is whether Roy Cooper’s margin is going to end up being in the single or double digits.
“Sometimes you see polls with him up by eight or nine – sometimes you see polls with him up by eleven or twelve,” Jensen said. “I have a feeling that he probably is going to end up getting that double digit victory.”
While some races seem to have a clear victor in sight, Jensen said others, like the Labor Commissioner or Lieutenant Governor, could go either way due to the low-profile nature of the positions.
“Because people don’t know anything about the candidates in any of those races, they’ll probably all break about the same way,” Jensen said. “I think the generic result for a political race in North Carolina this year is a Democrat winning 51-49. So at that point in all those close state races is just the question of whether any of the Republicans have strong enough personal brands to overcome that general [Democratic] orientation of the state.”
On Election Day, as the final votes are cast and counted into the night, the results of the state’s four and a half million early and mail-in votes are expected to be dropped at 7:30 p.m.
Jensen said the outcome of the state race should be clear then – as he expects only a million more votes will be cast in North Carolina on Election Day itself.
“The thing that I’m really going to be watching for is when we get that huge vote dump at 7:30,” Jensen said. “If Biden is up by 400,000 votes or more, if Cunningham is up by 400,000 votes or more, I’m going to feel pretty good that they’re going to hold on,” Jensen said.
Because of the pandemic and the exponential number of early votes cast this year, Jensen said if Biden wins the early vote count by eight points, he will win the state even if Republicans dominate the Election Day vote.
While North Carolina is a key battleground state this election, Jensen said there are five other swing states – including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Florida – that will be crucial in determining the outcome of this election.
“So you talk about these six key states – where Biden only needs to win three of them – the diciest one for him of that six is North Carolina, where we still found him ahead by four points,” Jensen said. “Those other five states Biden is up by at least six points.”
With the current trajectory of polls and the sheer number of votes already cast, Jensen said he thinks the fate of the presidential election is sealed.
“This year I’ll just be honest – I think it’s over,” Jensen said “The presidential race is over. People should go vote because plenty of other stuff is close, but I do not think the presidential race is going to be close at all. I am expecting a landslide. I think he [Biden] is going to win all the toss-ups.”
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