Well, they say the UNC-Duke game always delivers.

On paper, this one shouldn’t be close. The last-place team in the ACC going into Cameron cauldron where the Blue Devils have lost only twice this season, to Stephen F. Austin in November, and Louisville.

What effect will overtime heartbreaker at Smith Center a month ago have? Two weeks ago, it portended a blowout for Duke on its Senior Night. Now, Carolina is arguably playing better, shooting 50-plus percent over the last three games, turning it over less, tightening up the defense, back to dominating the boards. The Dukies have been struggling.

The tradition. Tar Heels have won 3 of last 9 at Cameron, and blew second-half leads in several other trips. The current team knows predecessors have won there, and that it’s a legacy to uphold.

Matchups favor UNC in size and rebounding, especially if Armando Bacot plays. Carolina fouled out Vernon Carey in the first game and, ironically, that helped Duke, which went small and spread the floor.

The Blue Devils stopped NC State on Monday with a 2-3 zone, the same defense Syracuse plays and the Heels shredded last Saturday with torrid shooting. Despite the defense, Carolina wants to go inside, where junior Garrison Brooks has been stellar and freshman Carey can be a defensive liability.

Tar Heels’ keys to victory are Brooks having a great game, Cole Anthony a statement game and all making their free throws. Plus, they must contain Tre Jones, the best point guard in college ball.

Duke’s key is getting off to a better start than in Chapel Hill and putting the game pressure on the less-talented team to keep it close. Coaching is a wash. Kids will decide it. Records don’t matter.

I love Carolina’s chances in this one.

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