Chansky's Notebook: Long-Shot Paths

UNC’s last-chance run to the post-season has to start Saturday.

The Tar Heels’ lopsided loss at Wake Forest all but eliminated them from any at-large berth into the NCAA tournament or NIT. Losing to the last-place team in your conference is just about a resume killer if you are hoping to get to the tourney bubbles, let alone make it in.

Carolina has two long-shot chances to keep playing after the ACC Tournament in Greensboro. One is to win four or five games in as many days and earn the automatic berth to the Big Dance. The other is to play at least 10 more games and win 7 of them, beginning with Saturday’s home rematch with Virginia.

At least the Tar Heels have shown they are capable of playing good basketball in the win at NC State and the loss to Duke, which absolutely should have been a victory. They have to shoot, defend and rebound well, and at times have done that.

Entering the Virginia game with a 10-14 record, Carolina also has home rematches with State and Wake Forest, plus daunting road games at Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse and Duke. Not winning the ACC tourney leaves a very narrow path to the NIT. The Heels must beat Virginia, State and Wake at the Smith Center and win two games on the road, say at Notre Dame and Syracuse. That would put them at 15-16 overall, and we know Carolina would likely get invited to the NIT with a .500 record.

That means winning at least two games in Greensboro to come out of the tournament at 17-17. I know you are reading this and saying, if they do that why not just shock the world by winning the ACC Championship, like Connecticut did in the old Big East in 2011.

Although Roy Williams insists that he coaches for one game at a time, he surely knows those numbers. It’s somewhat like Mack Brown having to win his last two games to finish 6-6, qualify for a bowl and get the extra practices and game that begins early preparation for next season.

Such an improbable run must be achieved one game at a time, and that means starting by beating Virginia tomorrow.