Chansky’s Notebook: At The Crossroads

UNC basketball faces the three most important games of the season.

The Tar Heels are at the crossroads over the next eight days. At 8-5, they will be favored to beat Georgia Tech Saturday, Pittsburgh Wednesday and Clemson on January 11, all at home. With an 11-5 record, and what would be 4-1 in the ACC, they have a fighting chance to lock up an NCAA tournament bid during the regular season.

Most fans don’t remember that 2010 team that wound up in the NIT was 12-4 on January 10 and still ranked in the top 10. Thanks to injuries, poor shooting and too many turnovers, the Heels lost 10 of their next 12 games to stand 14-14 the last week in February.

By then, they were on the wrong side of the bubble for the Big Dance and finished the regular season still at .500. Roy Williams’ current club has played better in recent games, and the schedule gives it a chance to be about where that 2010 team was after 16 games.

It is no secret that the bottom ten of the 15-team ACC is pretty average, at best. Right now, with Virginia having almost as much trouble scoring as Carolina, the only teams with a shot at a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament are Duke and Louisville. That means Carolina will have a chance to at least split its remaining ACC games.

Georgia Tech is 1-2 in conference play and 6-7 overall. The Yellow Jackets have one player, 6-5 guard Michael Devoe who averages just under 18 points game, in the top five of any offensive category in the ACC.

Pitt, which is 1-1 in the ACC and 10-3 overall, has a far more balanced lineup and is rebuilding an excellent program under Jeff Capel. The Panthers will be the toughest of Carolina’s next three opponents and get the Heels on in a home rematch 10 days later.

Clemson, 0-3 in the league and also 6-7 overall, doesn’t have a single player showing up among the ACC leaders. The Tigers have been pretty awful so far, already losing five times at home and their first two conference games in Littlejohn.

Still, Clemson looms as UNC’s biggest game of the season, holding that forever losing record in Chapel Hill. Even Matt Doherty’s 8-20 team kept the streak alive, so it remains a must win. The Heels own the worst shooting percentage in the ACC. Somehow, that must improve.