NCAA Tournament Opponent Breakdown: Baylor

It’s not a stretch to say the UNC men’s basketball team will be challenged more in its second-round game than in its first-round victory over Marquette. Carolina will take on No. 1 seed and defending national champions Baylor Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth, TX. The winner between the Tar Heels and Bears will advance to the Sweet 16 in Philadelphia next week. If you aren’t familiar with the foes from the Big 12, here’s a quick breakdown:

Head coach: Scott Drew. Drew has been in charge of the Bears since the 2003-04 season, and has transformed Baylor from a doormat in the Big 12 into a perennial contender. In his first season, Baylor went 8-21. Last year, the Bears cut down the nets.

What’s the history? Simply put, there isn’t one. This will be the first-ever matchup between Carolina and Baylor in men’s basketball.

Player to watch: Flo Thamba. Thamba is the only returning starter from Baylor’s championship win last April, and his matchup with Armando Bacot could well determine the winner Saturday. Baylor’s frontcourt is beat up, with forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua out for the season. Jeremy Sochan provides depth, but he’s only a freshman. Baylor’s lone seven-footer, Zach Loveday, averages just 3.8 minutes per game. Should Bacot get Thamba into foul trouble, UNC could take advantage down low as it did against Marquette.

Stats to watch: Baylor is one of the most well-rounded teams in America, ranking in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, according to Ken Pomeroy. Only three other teams (Gonzaga, Houston and UCLA) rank as high in both categories. Carolina is 22nd in offensive efficiency, but just 55th in defensive efficiency.

The game’s pace will be fascinating to watch. Baylor plays relatively slow, ranking 182nd in the country in tempo, whereas UNC sits at 37th. Carolina had no trouble with Marquette’s run-and-gun pace (25th in the country), but ran into major trouble with the more deliberate Virginia Tech Hokies (344th). Baylor sits squarely in the middle of those two teams.

Baylor ranks in the nation’s top 50 in field goal percentage (46.7), but ranks 263rd in free throw percentage (69.3). If the game is close late, UNC holds a clear advantage at the foul stripe: they’re 16th in the nation at 77.4 percent.

The Bears swipe almost nine steals per game, which puts them in the nation’s top 25. The only other two teams Carolina has faced who rank as highly or higher, Tennessee and Miami, each beat UNC by double digits. The Volunteers and Hurricanes combined for 19 steals in those two games.

Thin vs. Thin: With injuries to Tchamwa Tchatchoua and guard L.J. Cryer, who is out at least through this weekend, the Bears are one of the few national contenders who run as tight a rotation as Carolina. Cryer hasn’t played since mid-February, though it’s worth noting the Bears have hummed right along without him, notching wins over tournament teams Kansas, Texas, TCU and Iowa State in his absence. But there is quite the drop-off between Baylor’s starting five and its bench, as shown in this chart from Evan Miyakawa:

Baylor and Carolina are similarly thin. (Image via Evan Miyakawa)

It’s quite possible both teams could use seven or fewer players on Saturday.

What are the odds? As of Friday, Baylor is favored by five points over the Tar Heels. UNC has gone 3-5 as the betting underdog this season, most recently winning as 11-point underdogs at Duke in the regular-season finale.

Featured image via USA Today Sports/Chris Jones

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NCAA Tournament Opponent Breakdown: Baylor

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