Stats show Roy Williams should rely more on a seven-man rotation.
Any way you want to look at Carolina’s loss to Kentucky, it continued a common theme from previous defeats to Texas and Michigan. When Williams went to his bench and had poor-scoring combinations on the floor, the Tar Heels lost control of the game and had to fight from behind the rest of the way.
Williams and his staff may not rely heavily on the modern-day statistics known as analytics, but he has to be aware of the numbers. When a certain top seven players are on the court, they have never been outscored during those minutes. Against Kentucky and Michigan, Carolina’s top seven outscored the Wildcats and the Wolverines by plus-2. Against Texas, it was by plus-8.
Since the Dean Smith days, Carolina has always relied on its depth by building it from the beginning of the season. That means giving bench players enough time to make mistakes and improve their games as the schedule gets tougher. But so far this season, mishmash combinations have been outscored dramatically as the Tar Heels turned close games into large deficits.
So the question is: Who are Williams’ top seven players? Beyond regular starters Garrison Brooks, Cameron Johnson, Luke Maye, Kenny Williams and Coby White, the subs getting double-digit minutes against Kentucky were Seventh Woods, Nas Little, Sterling Manley and Leaky Black. Boring into the weeds of analytics can determine which combinations do the best or, in most cases, the worst.
Ol’ Roy plays 9, 10 or 11 men because he wants to out run the other team. But poor shot selection and turnovers are killing his club against good opposition, namely the murderous stretch Carolina has just finished with an 8-3 record with only two non-ACC games left.
So far, the Tar Heels’ personnel may not be as suited to UNC’s motion freelance game as past teams. And when the shortened 30-second clock winds down, it results too many times in forced one-on-one shots or turnovers. This time doesn’t seem like there’s a quick fix.
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I’ve said it all along, coaching is a huge part of the game and when you get stubborn and do it your way all of the time you will end up getting beat more than you should. His players are very talented but you must give those top tier players time to get acclimated to the system and the game itself. It’s hard to argue with Roy’s resume but I look at every game as a win if you play the right players and only substitute 1 or 2 in at a time and if one of the players is hot, let them play cause they are in rhythm and can produce when you need to build a lead and then keep building until you have to give them a rest.
Is this an original analysis or insight by you or was this presented by a regular poster on the IC premium message board yesterday?
Ol’ “stubborn” Roy has 3 national championship rings. How many do you have??