If the ball starts going in the basket, Carolina will be okay.

Roy Williams loves to say if the shots go in, things look a lot better. No shoot, Sherlock, since that is the name of the game. BASKET. BALL.

So as the 5-3 and now-unranked Tar Heels face what is truly an early season must win at Georgia Tech, a look at the statistics is painful but not terminal. Compare the players on the roster this season to last, and really there is no comparison.

Carolina has a far better and deeper front court and a more talented perimeter. The dad-gum ball just has to start going in.

Caleb Love is shooting terribly, but the analytics show that when he is on the court the Heels usually outscore the opponent by what the geeks call a plus-12.3 margin. When he’s not, it’s a minus-4.2.

The confusing part of all this is the team scores more when R.J. Davis, who is shooting better than Love, is on the bench. Carolina is a plus-30.8 points and turns the ball over less even though Love has 10 more turnovers than Davis.

When Andrew Platek, who wasn’t supposed to play much this season, is on the court with Love, the Heels are a plus-41 with a higher scoring efficiency and the fewest turnovers of any other guard combination. But the eye test tells you that Carolina wins more championships with Love and Davis playing more than Platek.

Funny game, this basketball. Besides shooting horrendously so far and a terrible 104-128 assist-to-turnover ratio, the Heels have a better free throw percentage and rebounding margin than a year ago. A good problem is that Day’Ron Sharpe can’t get enough minutes because Armando Bacot leads the team in scoring and rebounding.

And Ol’ Roy can’t sit preseason ACC Player of the Year Garrison Brooks, who still leads all big men in minutes played. Kerwin Walton looks like he deserves more time, with twice as many assists than turnovers and the second-best 3-point percentage to Platek.

Bottom line: everyone shoot the ball better. Starting tonight.

Photo via the Maui Invitational.

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