What We’re Thinking

New numbers out of Arizona and Iowa suggest the Democratic nominee should beat Donald Trump – if all of Trump’s opponents come together. Also, Biden still leads in North Carolina.

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Tom and Aaron discuss how it’s possible to conduct an accurate public opinion survey – especially in 2019, when nobody answers their phone anymore.

A new survey from Civitas shows that Pat McCrory (if he ran) would lead Dan Forest in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination – but Tom says the poll isn’t as good for McCrory as it looks.

While discussing the state of the Democratic presidential primary race, Tom argues that North Carolina will likely play a larger-than-anticipated role in selecting the nominee.

Tom discusses the possible impact of Congressional redistricting in North Carolina – and the impact that impeachment is not having on public opinion.

Tom and Aaron break down a wild Town Council election: what does it tell us about Chapel Hill? Also, Tom examines what the 2019 returns might suggest about 2020.

Tom says it’s a two-way race (for now) between Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren for the 2020 Democratic nomination. (Impeachment isn’t moving the dial.)

It’s likely to be an extremely close race for Chapel Hill Town Council this year. Tom and Aaron break it down – and attempt to predict the outcome.

Tom has new numbers from four battleground states – including Maine, where Sen. Susan Collins is in trouble regardless of where she stands on impeachment.

With impeachment in the air, PPP tests a Generic Democrat against not just Donald Trump, but also Mike Pence. (Generic Democrat comes out ahead no matter what.)