What We’re Thinking

This week, Tom discusses a survey from Michigan that suggests Donald Trump’s approval rating – already not very high – is tenuous at best.

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Tom discusses NC’s slight leftward shift in 2024, relative to the rest of the US – and his petition for more pedestrian-friendly crosswalks.

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Tom revisits the 2020 and 2022 North Carolina Supreme Court elections – which may have determined control of the U.S. House in 2024.

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Tom looks back on the 2024 election, including polling accuracy (high) and what the Democrats did wrong (not as much as you’d think).

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It’s Election Day Eve – and we still have no idea who’s going to win the presidential election. What can we glean from early-voting results?

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This week, Tom discusses early-voting turnout so far in North Carolina – and polling numbers that suggest a possible reversal of 2016.

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Tom says the presidential race is so close that polls can’t tell us who’s really leading: it’s all going to come down to who shows up to vote.

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What’s the likely impact of CNN’s report on Mark Robinson? Tom says not much in the presidential race, but downballot races may be different.

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On the day before the presidential debate, Tom and Aaron discuss private surveys showing Donald Trump with a slight edge on Kamala Harris.

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Tom and Aaron discuss recent polling that shows Kamala Harris running (on average) one point ahead of Joe Biden in 2020.

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