The shooting numbers tell the clear story of Carolina’s demise.

Roy Williams likes to talk about how much better his team looks if the ball goes in the basket. And despite typically good rebounding numbers and a decent, but not great, assist-to-turnover ratio, the Tar Heels’ current 10-12 record is clearly reflected in their shooting percentages. Unlike past UNC clubs, this one cannot win shooting poorly.

It’s a pretty stark comparison, too. In 10 victories so far, Carolina has hit 48.4 percent from the field and 32 percent from the 3-point line. In 12 defeats, the Heels’ overall field goal accuracy is 38 percent or 10 points below than in the wins. They are also shooting five points lower from the arc at 27 percent.

The close losses also support that comparison. UNC shot 46 percent and 37 from the arc in a well-contested, 13-point defeat at second-ranked Gonzaga; 43 and 23 against Clemson, which Carolina led for 39 minutes before losing in overtime, thanks to the Tigers getting hot from outside, and 44 and 32 percent in the double-overtime loss at Virginia Tech, where the Hokies drained 14 3-pointers, 7 more than the Tar Heels.

So, there seems little secret as to why the worst-shooting team of Williams’ head-coaching career is no longer mentioned in anyone’s projected NCAA field. The defense has been better lately, but the offense can’t seem to get a good shot out of the original set the starts each half-court possession, or the freelance game that follows as the shot clock winds down.

Carolina’s last two wins over Miami and at N.C. State were also its best shooting games of the season. The U was without its top player and one other starter, so Carolina’s 58 percent from the floor spelled the largest margin of victory. And the Heels shot 49 percent at State, which was their best all-around game and biggest win so far.

Cole Anthony has taken the most shots since his return, making only 10 of 36 and 5 of 18 from the arc, 13 more attempts than the next highest player on the team. Opponents know that and concentrate on guarding him closely. With no one else getting open or hot, as Ol’ Roy says, it ain’t pretty.

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