The latest UNC-NCAA slugfest is leading to the same conclusion.

After the NCAA submitted an amended Notice of Allegations, Carolina issued what has been called the strongest response ever written. Basically, UNC said it had issues with double jeopardy over evidence the NCAA had years ago and was concocting charges from the Wainstein Report after a statute of limitations had expired and that many of those charges were outside the NCAA’s jurisdiction.

All this legal posturing, the reams of paper exchanged and the millions of dollars being racked up by UNC’s law firm are leading to the same conclusion that many people had drawn from the very first Notice of Allegations and was only strengthened by the amended NOA. That the university was going to be hit hard for a lack of institutional control in monitoring the old AFAM department and the only program going to be substantively hit is women’s basketball. The latter seems more evident now, given the latest back and forth over the breadth and scope of emails involving former academic advisor Jan Boxill.

The two most important points for many UNC alumni and fans were only reinforced by the latest exchange: That football and men’s basketball remain accused only in the broadest sense, and that there is no specific evidence that any former Tar Heel athlete in those sports had cheated or otherwise had his eligibility compromised by taking the anomalous AFAM courses. The athletes and coaches in those programs are absent from any of those specific allegations.

Bottom line is the NCAA can and will charge the university with lack of monitoring, and only the degree of which remains an issue is how high the multi-million-dollar fine will be. And exactly what the penalty will be for women’s basketball, which could result in Sylvia Hatchell losing her job because, like that of every UNC coach, her contract says major NCAA infractions directly related to the coach results in termination.

We pretty much knew that in the past, and the latest episode of both parties covering their collective keisters has not changed those impending results — whenever the NCAA gets around to acting.