
How the game is called Saturday night could be the difference.
Let’s begin with the premise that Duke has more talent and a slightly deeper roster, but Carolina has become the better TEAM over the last six weeks when the Blue Devils were struggling.
Both teams reached the Final Four by playing good basketball, Duke mostly on the offensive end and the Tar Heels with more consistent defense. Analytics over the last month have UNC near the top in defense and much improved on offense.
So if it comes down to keeping your best players on the floor in the Superdome, no one is better at baiting refs than the Hall of Famer on the Duke bench. Coach K has been known to influence the officials to call the game more tightly to his team’s benefit.
There was no better example than the 2015 national title game between Duke and Wisconsin, which was tied at the half after only two fouls were called against the Badgers, one of the most efficient teams in the country in avoiding fouls.
Mike Krzyzewski was on the refs in the first half and into the second. At the break he even told CBS reporter Tracy Wolfson that the Blue Devils can’t win the game unless more fouls were called. Sure enough, Duke was in the bonus 9:18 into the second half, shooting 20 free throws after 13 fouls were called on Wisconsin.
At 75, Coach K isn’t nearly as demonstrative as earlier in his career, but look for him to be very active on the sideline from the opening jump. He knows if any of the Carolina starters get into foul trouble, his team will gain an immediate advantage.
Early in the first meeting in Chapel Hill, Armando Bacot picked up two careless fouls against Mark Williams and Paolo Banchero and had to come out. By the time Bacot returned, Duke had a double-digit lead in the eventual 20-point victory.
Bacot also picked up two fouls early in the rematch at Cameron but played much smarter in a game the Tar Heels kept close until exploding for 45 points over the last 12 minutes.
AB knows that giving up a basket is better than picking up a needless foul, and his ability to go hard down the lane in recent weeks might be able to turn the tables on the Duke big men.
Here’s to a game played cleanly and called fairly by the refs.
Featured image via Todd Melet
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