The stats show that Larry Fedora is right. His Tar Heels are that close.

The record may be everything in college sports, and if so it looks like Carolina is having a disastrous football season. The losses at Cal and East Carolina looked bad, but then came a well-played win over Pitt.

After a blowout loss at Miami and heartbreaking defeat to Virginia Tech in front of a great home crowd, the record indeed stands at 1-4. But when Fedora says how much he hurts for his players and how close they are to playing good, winning football, most of the numbers prove him right.

The Miami loss was 47-10, but without the six turnovers and four resulting in 24 points, it would have been a one-score game midway through the fourth quarter. Miami had 125 yards passing with one interception. The Tar Heels had 114 yards through the air with two picks that went to the house. The Hurricanes rushed the ball for 229 yards, an average of 6.7 yards per carry. Carolina ran it for 215 yards, a 5.4 average but also lost tree fumbles on the ground, one for a touchdown.

So despite the lopsided final score, Fedora can say – and did say – to his guys, “Eliminate the turnovers and we were in the game.” And Miami proved it was mortal two weeks later by losing at Virginia, which was picked to finish last in the ACC Coastal Division.

The Virginia Tech game was actually one-sided on paper, with the Heels rolling up 522 total yards compared to the Hokies’ 375. Carolina had the best defense on the field, giving up touchdown drives to begin and end the game. Both came after lost fumbles, and there were also two missed field goals. VaTech had two TD passes but also two interceptions.

So, again, without putting the ball on the ground, the Tar Heels win that game by at least two touchdowns. That’s the agony, but also the promise, of what the final stats say.

If freshman Cade Fortin has a serious injury, that compounds the situation because he played well and had a 40-yard run. But Carolina can win at Syracuse and at Virginia with Nathan Elliott and beat an average Georgia Tech team on Homecoming November 3.

Fix the mistakes, and Fedora is right.  The Tar Heels still have time to become a good football team.

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