We’re less than a month away from the May 6 primary election, and according to a new poll, the Republican race in the state for a seat in the United States Senate looks like it’s headed for a runoff.

Tom Jensen, of the left-leaning Public Policy Polling in Raleigh, said that North Carolina Speaker of the House, Thom Tillis, leads the GOP field with 18 percent of voters’ support, and his nearest competitor, OBGYN Greg Brannon, sits at 15 percent.

“Thirty-four percent of voters remain undecided, but Tillis would have to win about two-thirds of those undecideds in order to get to 40 percent. Unless something changes drastically, we are going to be headed to a second primary,” Jensen said.

This is somewhat surprising, Jensen said, considering that Tillis’ lead is so narrow in spite of having more name recognition than the rest of the Republican field. Sixty percent of voters know enough about Tillis to have formed an opinion, compared to 31 percent for Brannon, according to the poll.

“It is just a situation where his [Tillis’] campaign has not really caught fire with voters yet,” Jensen said. “Also, when we see so many voters undecided still, it shows that a lot of people just haven’t tuned into this race at all yet. But we could see more happen in these last four weeks than we did in the previous six months combined.”

The general election numbers remain stagnant, with incumbent Senator Kay Hagan receiving negative approval numbers. Forty-one percent of voters approve of the job she is doing compared to 48 percent who disapprove. This is the same trend that Jensen said he has observed since attack ads began airing in October concerning her connection with Obamacare.

Hagan also trails most of the Republican candidates by small margins, except for her most likely opponent, Tillis.

Jensen said the state Speaker of the House remains unpopular with voters due to his affiliation with the controversial 2013 legislative session.

“Republican [candidates], I think, in general would be favored against Hagan,” Jensen said. “But they may have sort of given her a life-line by running somebody else [Tillis] who is an unpopular politician against her, as opposed to somebody maybe outside the system.”

Similarly, Jensen said Hagan will have to overcome her association with Obamacare.

To see the full results from Public Policy Polling, click here.

Related Stories
‹
Republican Senate Primary Tied In NC; Tillis' Numbers Drop
"With eight candidates, and all of them so closely bunched together, it is looking more and more likely that this is going to be headed for a run-off..."
Poll: North Carolina Voters Down on Trump, Tillis as 2020 Race Approaches
According to a recent survey from Public Policy Polling, President Donald Trump and Senator Thom Tillis continue to lose support in North Carolina. This is not necessarily a new trend, as past polls from the company have also shown Republican support waning in the state. Trump’s disapproval rate has skyrocketed to 51% after winning the […]
Poll Shows Tillis, Health Care Repeal Unpopular in NC
Over half of voters in North Carolina disapprove of the Senate Republicans health care repeal bill, according to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling. Nearly half of voters claim that Senator Thom Tillis’ support of the repeal would make them less likely to vote to re-elect him in 2020, as opposed to 28 percent […]
Race For US Senate: Tillis Widens Lead In Rep. Primary
Tillis now leads the field of Rep. challengers with 19 percent of voters polled picking him. His closest challenger trails with 11 percent.
What We're Thinking: Will The House Flip Next Year?
This week Tom talks with Andrew Stuckey, filling in for Aaron Keck. Tom discusses recent polls from Iowa and Pennsylvania that show incumbent republicans in deep holes already. He discusses historical cycles in electoral politics, why it might be good to regulate your political news intake, and more.
Trump's Approval Is Declining. Want to Change Voters' Minds? Local Experts Say Your Tone Matters.
Donald Trump's approval rating is declining, giving progressives an opportunity to move the dial - but experts say the right approach is key.
'We're A Pretty Cranky Country': Pollster Tom Jensen on Election 2024
Pollster Tom Jensen discusses what the Democrats did wrong in 2024 (actually not much) and how they might do better in 2026 and 2028.
Does Harris' Candidacy Have 'The Potential To Really Reshape the Race'? Local Pollster Shares Data
The 2024 election has featured lots of major shakeups, but none of them have affected public opinion. Will Kamala Harris be different?
Did the Debate Hurt Joe Biden? Local Pollster Says Not As Much As You May Think
Think last week's debate hurt Joe Biden? Polls suggest the Trump-Biden race is exactly where it was before - and there's a clear reason.
Ahead of the 2024 Election, Here's How to Read a Public Opinion Poll
Since we're about to see a lot of them: how should we interpret the results of a public opinion poll? Expert pollster Tom Jensen weighs in.
›