The first three weeks of Donald Trump’s second presidency have seen a flurry of activity – enough, sometimes, to feel overwhelming to Americans who are opposed or unsure. But while it all may feel like a juggernaut, experts on public opinion say Trump’s approval rating is already starting to decline.
And that gives Democrats and progressives an opportunity to move the dial in the public conversation – if they’re able to do it right.
“I think it’s just the general air of chaos,” says Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen, who is based in Chapel Hill. “We have tended to see over the years that voters do not like it when there’s too much going on and it doesn’t seem like things are really in control.”
Presidents typically see high approval ratings in their first few weeks, followed by a decline – and Trump has been no exception. Jensen says polls are showing Trump’s approval rating lower now in key states than it was before the election: 90 percent of Trump voters are happy with what he’s doing, but about 10 percent are not.
That translates to about 7 million voters – and Jensen says those voters are pretty important.
“I think about it as a math problem,” he says. “(Most Trump voters) are going to be totally fine with what he does, and that is what it is. But 7 million are already saying they’re not sure – and 75 million people voted for Kamala Harris. So if just one in 10 Harris voters have one Trump voter in their life who they can help flip over the next four years, that’s enough to win the election.”
Listen to Tom Jensen’s conversation with 97.9 The Hill’s Aaron Keck.
But if you really want to be effective in those conversations, Jensen says, it’s a good idea not to be aggressive – but rather to take a softer approach.
“One of the most important things that Democrats need to avoid doing right now is getting into a position where voters are like, ‘well, we don’t like Trump, but we think you are even more annoying,’” Jensen says. “Somebody I know, a young person who voted for Trump, texted me last week, totally appalled about everything that Trump was saying about Gaza. (At the same time) I saw all these people on social media saying, ‘Okay, young people who didn’t vote for Harris because you were mad about Gaza – look how stupid you are! This is what you deserve!’ And I know my relative who voted for Trump: even though he’s unhappy, he won’t be won over by everybody telling him how stupid he is…
“So I think that’s something Democrats need to be very careful about: respectfully talking through what’s going on. ‘Is this the outcome that you expected when you voted the way you did?’ That sort of thing. Those sorts of personal conversations, striking the right tone, welcoming people into the fold. If they do see they might have made a mistake with their vote, that’s the kind of thing that’s going to be so much more important – being able to drive those personal connections, with people who really are open to being won back over.”
Of course, it’s not easy to have conversations like that. So how do we do it successfully?
Fortunately, there’s research on campus about how to do just that.
Psychologist Kurt Gray heads up the Deepest Beliefs Lab and the Center for the Science of Moral Understanding at UNC. His team has developed a three-step approach to having those meaningful conversations across differences.
He calls it the CIV approach: Connect, Invite, and Validate.
“The first letter is C for ‘connect’,” Gray says. “Before you have political conversations, you should just try to talk with someone as a human being. And part of that is asking them questions: ‘what are you thinking about? What are your holiday plans?’ And (the secret to success) is that people love deeper questions. There are studies out there: you know what people actually like to talk about? ‘When’s the last time you cried?’ ‘Who was your first love?’
“And then the I is ‘invite’: ‘Hey, I know you voted differently in the last election than I did. I’d love to understand what caused you to do that.’ And then after invitation, after someone tells you what they feel – it’s maybe going to be awkward, but you want to understand that they’re trying their best, and so you’re going to want to ‘validate’ what they said: ‘I appreciate you sharing that with me.’ That goes a long way, and now they feel heard, and now you can have a more reasonable conversation about politics.”
Read more of Kurt Gray’s conversation with Aaron Keck.
Gray says that approach has been shown to ease tensions, reduce polarization, and form (or re-form) closer connections between people – all good things in and of themselves.
And if it’s changing people’s minds you want: Jensen says it’s important to remember that most of the time you try, you’re not actually going to succeed. But those rare successes, added up, can make a big difference.
“To people who want to do something: if you know just one Trump voter who might be open to changing their mind, that’s fine,” he says. “Make it your project.”
Featured photo via AP Photo/Evan Vucci.
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How on Earth can previous supporters of Trump be disillusioned now?! The signs were there since before 2020!