Art’s Angle: Get It Together Time

Bill Guthridge used to say if a team doesn’t have it together in February, it’s a bad sign for March. If Coach Gut were still with us, he might not think much of Carolina’s chances in the ACC and NCAA tournaments.

Of course, there are exceptions to Guthridge’s theory, teams that got on a roll late; most notably Larry Brown’s 1988 Kansas Jayhawks, who barely made the Big Dance as a sixth seed and reached the national championship game against top-ranked Oklahoma, stunning the Sooners in Kansas City at the 50th Final Four. That team was aptly nicknamed Danny (Manning) and the Miracles.

Carolina enters the final week of the regular season still tied for first place in the ACC with Miami (and by virtue of drilling the Hurricanes on February 20 has the tie-breaker). But, no one would dare say the Tar Heels are on a roll; actually they are closer to hanging on for dear life. Their attempt to stay in the driver’s seat in the ACC race at Virginia ended with some missed opportunities on both ends of the court (and I do say some missed calls by the officials).

Brice Johnson, Marcus Paige and Joel James have their Senior Night Monday against Syracuse, a game Carolina must win in order to play for the ACC regular season championship Saturday night at Duke. Had the Tar Heels been able to finish that annoying first match-up on Feb. 17, they would have the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament (and likely NCAA tournament) locked up despite a so-so February.

Carolina still does not have a quality win on the road, failing to beat a ranked team in its baby blue unies. Leads were lost at Louisville and Notre Dame before allowing a depleted Duke team on the ropes to steal a win at the Smith Center. Around that game, the Heels have played better, blowing out both Pitt and Miami, making a nice comeback at N.C. State and keeping the Virginia game close all the way to the end.

But you can’t miss a one-and-one (Johnson) or dead layup (Paige) on critical possessions and beat Malcolm Brogdon and the Cavaliers on their home court. Carolina actually out-rebounded the ‘Hoos 43-36 and matched their 17 offensive rebounds, but didn’t it seem that Virginia got all the big second chances when they needed them?

Joel Berry, with a career-high 21 points, tied the score at 49 with 13:48 remaining when a series of Carolina miscues allowed Virginia to break open the game. Here is how the official play-by-play read:

MISSED LAYUP by Theo Pinson.

TURNOVR by London Perrantes

STEAL by Kennedy Meeks

TURNOVR by Brice Johnson

TURNOVR by Anthony Gill

STEAL by Joel Berry

MISSED LAYUP by Joel Berry

REBOUND (OFF) by Kennedy Meeks

MISSED TIP-IN by Kennedy Meeks

Brogdon, who likely won ACC Player of the Year over Johnson with 26 points (17 in the first half), hit a jumper to trigger a 13-5 run, making it desperation time for the Tar Heels. They kept fighting and had the deficit down to 5 after a dunk by Isaiah Hicks when this sequence occurred:

MISSED LAYUP by Devon Hall

REBOUND (OFF) by Devon Hall

MISSED LAYUP by Devon Hall

BLOCK by Isaiah Hicks 01:50; REBOUND (DEF) by Joel Berry

FOUL by Isaiah Wilkins 01:45    

MISSED FREE THROW by Brice Johnson

REBOUND (DEF) by Malcolm Brogdon 

Uneven performances like this one have put UNC in the middle of the national debate over NCAA seeding. Going into the Virginia game, the Tar Heels were a No. 1 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi but a No. 3 seed on Dr. Jerry Palm’s board because of the aforementioned lack of quality wins.

If they defeat Syracuse and win at Duke to finish first in the ACC, the Heels will likely solidify their place on the “one line” and having won five of their last seven games might have some momentum for a deep post-season run. Clearly, they will need better play from junior Kennedy Meeks, whose game has gone south over the second half of the ACC season.

Meeks’ stat line has declined the last eight games (4-4) in every category – scoring average, rebounding and shooting percentage from both the floor and foul line, where he has attempted only two free throws in the last six games. Not a great leaper by any means, Meeks has played below the rim and more like the dough boy he used to be than the kid who worked so hard to lose more than 50 pounds since high school. Meanwhile, Hicks’ game and aggressiveness around the basket have ascended and he would likely be starting and getting more minutes than Meeks if he weren’t so foul prone.

The key to victory at Virginia was Carolina using its superior size. Yet Berry and Paige combined to take 28 of the team’s 59 shots and their eight three-pointers kept the Tar Heels close most of the night. Virginia’s vaunted “pack line” defense does that to a lot of teams, but the Tar Heels’ improved perimeter game with another late-season surge by Justin Jackson still isn’t good enough if Brice Johnson can’t get more touches. He had nine shots and 12 points at Virginia and, much like in the Duke loss, had trouble getting the ball down the stretch.

Now come the Syracuse zone and Senior Night at Cameron, where Duke might even have Amile Jefferson back for an inspirational send-off. The Heels may need to win them both to avoid losing the tie-breaker to Virginia for first place in the ACC. If they lose them both, they could still fall all the way to fifth and have to play on Wednesday in the ACC tournament.

Time to get it together.