An average of a series of polls of likely North Carolina voters released on Monday and Tuesday show Hillary Clinton, Roy Cooper and Richard Burr leading their respective races with Election Day two weeks away.
The surveys – released by Public Policy Polling, Monmouth University and the New York Times Upshot/Sienna College – show the Democratic presidential nominee Clinton with a nearly four-point advantage on average over Republican nominee Donald Trump. That is continuing a shift among likely voters in the Tar Heel state to be more in favor of backing Clinton over the most recent polls.
Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper is leading incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory by more than two points, which shows McCrory closing the gap on some of the surveys that showed Cooper with an increasing lead recently.
PPP attributes the closer gubernatorial race to the way McCrory has handled the aftermath of Hurricane Matthew.
“This race looks more competitive now than it did a month ago when McCrory’s greatest public visibility was coming due to HB2 rather than the natural disaster,” PPP director Tom Jensen wrote when summarizing the results.
While Democratic candidates are leading races for president and governor, according to the surveys, Republican incumbent Senator Richard Burr is averaging a two-point lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross. The PPP and NYT Upshot/Sienna College surveys show each candidate with a one-point lead, while the Monmouth survey shows Burr leading by six points.
PPP also shows Democrats leading the generic legislative ballot by four points.
Early voting is well underway across North Carolina and voters are turning out in numbers much higher than in 2012. Democrats have an overwhelming advantage in early voting, according to PPP, with Clinton leading 63/37, Cooper up 61/33 and Ross ahead of Burr 52/34. This supports the idea that Democrats use early voting at a much higher rate than Republicans.
Early voting runs through November 5 with Election Day set for November 8.http://chapelboro.com/featured/clinton-cooper-and-burr-average-slim-leads-among-north-carolina-surveys
Wednesday night, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump take the stage in Las Vegas for their third and final presidential debate – and they’re meeting in the midst of a slew of controversies.
First, there was a leaked Access Hollywood video where Trump made lewd comments about women; then nine women came forward and accused Trump of sexual assault; Wikileaks released internal documents that were troubling for Clinton; and Trump is now campaigning against fellow Republicans as much as his opponent. (And let’s face it, the word “first” might not be entirely accurate up there.)
But Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen says all the headlines have not really changed the dynamic of the presidential race – and he says that shouldn’t be too surprising. The headlines are salacious, he says, but they’re not actually telling us anything new about the candidates that we didn’t already know. Besides, each candidate’s supporters hate the other candidate so much that very little at this point could change their minds. (Trump supporters, naturally, take this to an extreme: 40 percent of Trump supporters in Florida actually say they believe Hillary Clinton is a literal demon.)
Jensen discussed the state of the race last week with WCHL’s Aaron Keck.http://chapelboro.com/news/election/election-2016-why-its-still-a-race
One of the most common mistakes we all make is to assume that everyone in the world secretly thinks exactly the same way we do. “Oh sure,” we say, “they may express a different opinion in public, but that’s only because they’re afraid of the PC police, or the media has poisoned their minds, or they just don’t know all the facts. But believe you me – whatever I think is true, rest assured everyone else is thinking the same thing. They’re just not as courageous as I am, to say it out loud.”
This is a reassuring belief. Trouble is, it isn’t true. The world is full of diverse opinions – and if the numbers say you’re in the minority, there’s a pretty good chance you’re actually in the minority.
Listen to Aaron’s commentary.
Case in point: Gary Johnson.
Now, we all know how this presidential election is going. We’ve got two extremely unpopular candidates. The two most unpopular presidential candidates in history, in fact. Nobody likes Donald Trump. Nobody likes Hillary Clinton. And so, this year, more people are taking a look at Gary Johnson – and that’s got his supporters excited. (I assume you know this already: if you yourself are not a Johnson supporter, you probably have some Facebook friends who are.) Johnson’s the best candidate in the race, they say, and everybody knows it. And yeah, he’s only polling 6, 7, 8 percent – but obviously that’s just because we’ve deluded ourselves into thinking third parties are wasted votes.
“Man,” they say, “if all the people who preferred Gary Johnson actually voted for him – he’d win!”
That’s the line. And it kinda makes sense. I mean, nobody likes Clinton and nobody likes Trump – so it stands to reason that if everyone who dislikes both Clinton and Trump voted for Johnson, he’d win in a landslide.
Except for one thing:
It isn’t true.
All year long we’ve been telling ourselves that everyone hates both Clinton and Trump. But the fact is – hard as it may be to believe – the vast majority of us do, in fact, like one of those two candidates.
Here’s the latest national survey from Public Policy Polling: 52 percent of us have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton, and 55 percent of us have an unfavorable opinion of Trump. But 44 percent of us like Clinton, and 39 percent of us like Trump. That adds up to 83 percent. True, there’s a little bit of overlap – those rare crazies who somehow like both Clinton and Trump – but even then, three out of four Americans do like at least one or the other. We assume they’re universally despised – but if you dislike both candidates, you’re not in the majority. Only about 25 percent of us agree with you.
So if the Gary Johnson fans get their way – and everyone who hates both Clinton and Trump actually goes out and votes for their guy – he’d still only end up with 25 percent of the vote. That’s pretty good for a third-party candidate – but it’s still a distant third.
Of course if you like Gary Johnson, by all means vote for him. If you really don’t have a preference between Clinton and Trump, vote for Johnson instead. But don’t assume everyone else is secretly on your side and just too chicken to act. Sadly, that ain’t true. And it’s never true – not for you, not for me. We have to live in a diverse world, whether we like it or not.
(And hey, that’s partly what this election is all about in the first place.)http://chapelboro.com/columns/aaron-keck/second-thoughts-our-beloved-presidential-candidates
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in North Carolina and several other key battleground states in the race for the presidency, according to a survey done by Public Policy Polling. The survey was conducted after Monday night’s debate between the two candidates. Public Policy Polling conducted the survey on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund.
In North Carolina, 44 percent of voters chose Clinton, 42 percent selected Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson received seven percent and seven percent remain undecided. In a two way race between the Democratic candidate, Clinton, and the Republican candidate, Trump, Clinton’s lead grows to four points, 49-45.
Public Policy Polling surveyed North Carolinians prior to the debate. In that poll, released on September 21, Trump held a two-point lead when Johnson was included. Trump and Clinton were tied in a head-to-head match-up. So, the new poll shows a four-point swing in Clinton’s favor.
PPP also conducted a post-debate national survey, which shows Clinton leading Trump 44-40. In that survey, 54 percent of Americans said they think Clinton won the debate; only 31 percent said Trump won. (PPP saw different results in a flash poll conducted immediately after the debate: voters there also said Clinton won, but by a smaller margin, 51-40. PPP director Tom Jensen says media coverage accounts for the difference: Americans did generally see Clinton as the winner, but that opinion grew more entrenched as pundits reinforced it over the week.)
PPP director Tom Jensen spoke Thursday with WCHL’s Aaron Keck.
Experts believe the state of North Carolina will play a vital role in determining the next President of the United States. The election prediction website FiveThirtyEight places North Carolina fourth out of the 50 states on their “Tipping-Point Chance” scale. This the probability that a state will provide the decisive vote in the Electoral College.
Public Policy Polling’s post-debate battleground state survey also polled voters in Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Clinton enjoys six point leads in Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. In Florida, it’s a two-point lead for Clinton.
Monday night’s debate is credited for Clinton’s boost. In all five states surveyed, respondents saw Clinton as the debate’s winner by wide margins. In North Carolina, 53 percent of those surveyed said Clinton won the debate and 31 percent gave the win to Trump. Clinton did particularly well in the debate with voters under 30 in North Carolina. Those voters gave her a 59-17 victory over Trump.
Public Policy Polling also surveyed North Carolina voters about the races for governor and senator.
Democratic challenger Roy Cooper holds a three-point lead over Republican incumbent Pat McCrory when Libertarian challenger Lon Cecil is included – Cooper gets 45 percent, McCrory gets 42 percent, and Cecil gets four percent. Undecided voters make up nine percent of respondents. Cooper’s lead stretches to five points in a head-to-head match-up with McCrory, 49-44.
This shows a slight tightening of the gubernatorial race when compared to Public Policy Polling’s most recent previous survey. In the survey released on September 21, Cooper held a 46/41 lead in the three-way race and a 50/43 lead in the head-to-head match-up.
In the race for one of North Carolina’s seats in the Senate, Republican Richard Burr regains his lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross. Burr holds a 41/39 lead over Ross. Libertarian Sean Haugh is polling at six percent and 14 percent are undecided. Burr’s lead grows to four points in a two-way race against Ross, 46-42.
In Public Policy Polling’s most recent previous survey, Ross tied Burr 41/41.
Like the presidential race in the state, the battle for North Carolina’s Senate seat has major national implications. FiveThirtyEight views the race in North Carolina as the race most likely to determine which party controls the Senate.http://chapelboro.com/featured/post-debate-poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-north-carolina
Less than two months before Election Day (and less than a month and a half before the start of early voting), where do things stand in the presidential race in North Carolina?
With contrasting results from different polls, all we know is that it’s close.
A survey this week from Quinnipiac University shows Hillary Clinton with a four-point lead on Donald Trump, 47-43 – or 42-38, with Gary Johnson included. (Johnson gets 15 percent.) That’s good news for Clinton – but another survey out this week, from Suffolk University, shows Trump with a three-point lead in North Carolina, 44-41. (Gary Johnson only gets 4 percent in the Suffolk poll.)
What can we tell about the state of the presidential race, in North Carolina and nationwide? WCHL’s Aaron Keck spoke this week with Tom Jensen, director of Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling. (PPP’s latest North Carolina survey showed Clinton with a one-point lead, 45-44.)
The Quinnipiac survey also asked voters about the other two high-profile state races in North Carolina, for Governor and U.S. Senate. There, the results were quite varied: incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr has a six-point lead on Democratic challenger Deborah Ross, 49-43 – but incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory trails Democratic challenger Roy Cooper by seven points, 51-44.http://chapelboro.com/featured/whos-leading-prez-race-in-nc-nobody-really-knows
North Carolina continues to be a tight battleground state in the race for President – and the fact that the race is tightening nationwide only makes our state that much more important.
In the latest survey conducted by Public Policy Polling – this one commissioned by the National Employment Law Project – Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45-44 in North Carolina. (This particular survey did not include Gary Johnson or Jill Stein as options.) Trump and Clinton each win 79 percent of the vote from members of their own party; Trump holds a 48-29 lead over Clinton among independents.
There are clear demographic gaps as well: Clinton leads Trump by 13 points among women (52-39), while Trump leads by 14 points among men (50-36); Trump has a huge lead among white voters, 59-29, but Clinton leads among African-Americans by an even more staggering margin of 90-1. (Clinton leads among Hispanic voters too, but by a narrower margin of 47-33.)
Nationwide, PPP’s August survey shows Clinton with a 5-point lead on Trump, 42-37 (with 6 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein). The 5-point margin is unchanged from PPP’s July survey – but the number of undecided voters doubled in the space of a month, from 5 percent in July to 10 percent in August. That’s unusual for a presidential election: typically, the number of undecided voters declines as Election Day draws nearer.
Why are there more undecided voters now? PPP director Tom Jensen says he thinks it’s because the two major candidates are extremely unpopular. (In fact, their already-low approval ratings are still in decline.) Clinton’s approval rating is only 41 percent (with a 52 percent disapproval rating) – but Trump is even more unpopular, with only 33 percent of voters approving of him and 60 percent disapproving.
(How unpopular is Donald Trump? PPP tested him head-to-head against other notably unpopular things and found he’s slightly more popular than junk mail, mosquitoes, and Ryan Lochte – but less popular than public restrooms, the middle seat on an airplane, and Duke University.)
Tom Jensen discussed the latest national numbers – as well as the NELP-commissioned North Carolina survey – on WCHL with Aaron Keck.
Other recent survey results:
Tom Jensen and Aaron Keck also discussed the results of PPP’s recent survey in Utah – which showed Trump with a sizable lead on Clinton, despite being unpopular among Mormon voters – as well as the state of the gubernatorial race in North Carolina, where recent polls show Roy Cooper with a lead on Pat McCrory.http://chapelboro.com/featured/duke-beats-trump-but-trump-may-still-beat-clinton
Two and a half months from Election Day, national surveys generally show Hillary Clinton with a steady lead on Donald Trump.
But many Trump supporters don’t believe it – instead they’re insisting that the polls (yes, all of them) are biased.
Earlier this week, some people took that belief to a new level. A website called RealTrueNews claimed to have discovered a secret “internal memo” from Public Policy Polling finding Trump with a 65-point lead on Clinton in Florida (not a typo) and discussing how best to cover up the “truth.” The “memo” is obviously a phony – among other things, it includes an obscenity-laden paragraph about how to obtain “Bernie-grade weed” from other polling outfits – but PPP director Tom Jensen says they spent the day handling tweets and emails from people who actually believed it was true.
“It’s really a commentary on the credulity of Trump supporters that so many think this memo could be real,” PPP said on Twitter.
But Jensen also says it’s not a surprising commentary. In poll after poll, he says, PPP has found that Trump supporters are convinced that most Americans favor their candidate – and that any survey suggesting otherwise must be biased. And all year long, PPP has found that Trump’s supporters are willing to agree with just about anything he says, no matter how extreme.
PPP’s actual survey this week, for instance, looked at voters in Texas – where 71 percent of Trump supporters say that “if Clinton wins the election…it will just be because the election was rigged.” (Specifically, 40 percent of Trump supporters believe the election will be rigged by ACORN – even though that organization no longer exists.)
Tom Jensen discussed the Texas survey – and the fake Florida poll – on WCHL with Aaron Keck.
The bad news for Donald Trump is that even in red-state Texas, he doesn’t have that many supporters – at least not right now. PPP’s survey does show Trump leading Clinton there – but by only six points, 44-38. (Mitt Romney won the state by 16 points in 2012.) And Trump’s lead appears to be limited to senior citizens: he’s up 63-33 on Clinton among seniors, but Texans under the age of 65 favor Clinton, 49-45. (And among voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Jensen says that’s not just the usual generational gap – it suggests Texas may become less of a GOP lock over the next couple decades, particularly considering the state’s growing Latino population.)
And PPP’s survey also finds widespread support for progressive/Democratic policies on a variety of issues across party lines: 72 percent favor an increased minimum wage; 63 percent want the Senate to hold Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Merrick Garland; and 83 percent want people on the government’s terror watch list to be banned from buying guns. Considering Texas’ gun-friendly reputation, there’s a surprising level of support for several gun-control policies: 89 percent of Texans also want to see background checks on all gun purchases, and there’s even plurality support for an assault weapons ban (48 percent in favor, 43 percent opposed).
North Carolina’s House Bill 2, commonly known as HB2, remains unpopular among North Carolinians, according to a newly released survey from Public Policy Polling.
The new results show that 43 percent of North Carolinians are opposed to the law, which advocates continue to call among the worst pieces of anti-LGBT legislation in the nation. That compares with 30 percent of respondents who support HB2.
The law requires transgender individuals to use the bathroom and changing facility that corresponds with their birth certificate rather than their gender identity in government owned buildings, schools and universities. The law also bars localities from extending nondiscrimination ordinances beyond the state policy and keeps local governments from being able to increase the minimum wage locally.
That negative outlook on HB2 may be playing a role in how North Carolinians view those associated with the law, specifically Republican incumbent Governor Pat McCory in his battle for the Governor’s Mansion with the Democratic challenger Attorney General Roy Cooper. PPP director Tom Jensen wrote when summarizing the numbers, “There’s a good chance that if not for HB2 McCrory would be favored for reelection at this point.”
As it stands, the survey results show Cooper with a one-point lead over McCrory.
Among those surveyed, 58 percent said they felt HB2 was hurting North Carolina, overall, and an identical 58 percent believe it is hurting the state’s economy.
Those who believe HB2 is hurting the economy is up from the last survey in June when 49 percent felt it was a drag on North Carolina. Since then, the National Basketball Association has moved the 2017 All-Star Game from Charlotte due to HB2.
Beyond disliking the law and its impact on North Carolina, 50 percent of respondents said they did not believe the law was accomplishing what lawmakers said was the intended goal – to make North Carolinians safer. Twenty-nine percent of respondents said the law did make them feel safer.
Supporters have maintained HB2 is “common sense” legislation that will keep women and children safe in North Carolina. Of the women who were surveyed, 54 percent said it has not made them feel safer.
HB2 is being challenged in court. At a recent court hearing on a motion arguing for a preliminary injunction, the judge asked why the law was in place since there is no enforcement mechanism.
Among other topics surveyed, North Carolinians would like to see the United States Senate move forward with Merrick Garland’s nomination to the US Supreme Court by a 60/23 margin. There is also bipartisan support with 71 percent of those surveyed in favor of increasing the minimum wage to $10 per hour and 78 percent support for barring those on the Terror Watch list from buying a firearm. In fact, a higher percentage of Republicans (81) supported that Terror Watch list ban than Democrats (78). The survey shows North Carolinians would also support a ban on assault weapons by a 51-39 margin.
You can see the full results here.http://chapelboro.com/featured/ppp-north-carolinians-dont-feel-safer-under-hb2
Democratic challenger Roy Cooper holds a slight lead over Pat McCrory in the race for North Carolina governor, according to an upcoming Public Policy Polling survey. Tuesday afternoon, Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen revealed the new data to WCHL’s Aaron Keck.
Cooper leads McCrory by one point. Cooper, the current North Carolina Attorney General, received 43 percent in the new survey. Incumbent Governor McCrory received 42 percent. Libertarian challenger Lon Cecil received 4 percent of responses.
The race for North Carolina governor has been close for months. In a June Public Policy Polling survey, Cooper and McCrory were tied at 41 percent.
Listen to Jensen’s conversation with Aaron Keck on WCHL.
HB2 appears to be impacting McCrory. Only 30 percent of North Carolina voters support the controversial law while 43 oppose it. Forty-three percent of North Carolinians approve of McCrory’s job as governor while 47 percent disapprove.
In the race for one of North Carolina’s seats in the United States Senate, Republican incumbent Richard Burr holds a four point lead over Democratic challenger Deborah Ross. In the poll, Burr receives 41 percent and Ross gets 37 percent. Libertarian Sean Haugh is getting 5 percent.
Public Policy Polling released a survey Tuesday on how the presidential election is looking in North Carolina. In that poll, Hillary Clinton holds a small lead over Donald Trump, 43 percent to 41 percent. It is Clinton’s first lead in the state since March.
Jensen says, “It’s hard to imagine there’s any state in the country this year that is more closely divided as North Carolina.”
You can look through the full results from Public Policy Polling’s North Carolina survey.http://chapelboro.com/featured/ppp-roy-cooper-leads-pat-mccrory-is-race-for-nc-governor
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is leading Republican Donald Trump in North Carolina by a 43-41 margin, according to a survey released by Public Policy Polling on Tuesday.
PPP director Tom Jensen writes when summarizing the results that this is the first lead Clinton has held in the Tar Heel state since March.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (7) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2) garnered support from nine percent of respondents combined.
The two-point margin favoring Clinton shrinks to a 47-46 lead in a head-to-head matchup with Trump.
North Carolina has been called a “must-have state” for Trump to have a chance at winning the White House.
While Clinton now leads Trump, Jensen writes that is not due to a change in favorability among those surveyed. Clinton had a 39/55 favorability rating when North Carolina was last surveyed by PPP; she now has a 40/55 rating in the newest results. But Trump saw a seven-point decline in his net popularity over that same time period, now registering at 37/58.
PPP finds that North Carolinians polled have a similar feeling to other Americans in other recent surveys, preferring a continuation of the Obama administration rather than Trump’s vision for the country at a 50/45 rate.
The undecided voters in North Carolina would be overwhelmingly in favor of a third term from President Obama rather than a Trump presidency by 33 points in a hypothetical matchup. Those same undecided voters have a 45/28 favorability rating of Clinton’s Democratic rival in the primary Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
To further state how the group of undecided voters feels about Trump, PPP reports the Republican candidate has a 1/94 favorability rating among the group.
Jensen writes that means that these voters will likely either get behind the Clinton campaign or stay home in November. Jensen adds, “At any rate it’s more likely that they’ll build Clinton’s lead than eat into it when they come off the fence, and that’s good news for Clinton given the advantage she already has.”
PPP polled several questions among Trump supporters based off of claims that he has recently made regarding the election. Those results are posted verbatim from PPP below:
-69% of Trump voters think that if Hillary Clinton wins the election it will be because it was rigged, to only 16% who think it would be because she got more vote than Trump. More specifically 40% of Trump voters think that ACORN (which hasn’t existed in years) will steal the election for Clinton. That shows the long staying power of GOP conspiracy theories.
-48% of Trump voters think that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton deserve the blame for Humayun Khan’s death to 16% who absolve them and 36% who aren’t sure one way or the other (Obama was in the Illinois Legislature when it happened.) Showing the extent to which Trump supporters buy into everything he says, 40% say his comments about the Khans last week were appropriate to only 22% who will grant that they were inappropriate. And 39% of Trump voters say they view the Khan family negatively, to just 11% who have a positive opinion of them.
-Even though Trump ended up admitting it didn’t exist 47% of his voters say they saw the video of Iran collecting 400 million dollars from the United States to only 46% who say they didn’t see the video. Showing the extent to which the ideas Trump floats and the coverage they get can overshadow the facts, even 25% of Clinton voters claim to have seen the nonexistent video.
-Trump said last week that Hillary Clinton is the devil, and 41% of Trump voters say they think she is indeed the devil to 42% who disagree with that sentiment and 17% who aren’t sure one way or the other.
We’ve been writing for almost a year that there’s a cult like aspect to Trump’s supporters, where they’ll go along with anything he says. Trump made some of his most outlandish claims and statements yet last week, but we continue to find that few in his support base disavow them.
The public as a whole is a different story though. A number of the things Trump has been in the news for lately have the potential to be very damaging to his campaign overall:
-Vladimir Putin has a 9/63 favorability rating with North Carolinians, and Russia as a whole comes in at 14/51. By a 49 point margin they’re less likely to vote for a candidate Russia is perceived to prefer for President, and by a 33 point margin they’re less likely to vote for a candidate seen as friendly toward Russia. This issue is not doing Trump any favors.
-58% of voters think Trump needs to release his tax returns, compared to only 31% who don’t think it’s necessary for him to. In every state we’ve polled recently we’ve found an overwhelming sentiment that he needs to release them- independents say he needs to 54/33.
-Even though Trump’s own voters might support the approach he took to the Khan family, only 19% overall think it was appropriate to 54% who think it was inappropriate.
-And after his reported comments last week only 38% of voters think Trump can be trusted with nuclear weapons, to 54% who think he can’t be trusted.
You can see the full results of the survey here.http://chapelboro.com/featured/ppp-clinton-holds-first-lead-over-trump-in-north-carolina-since-march