The First Amendment says “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof” – but when it comes to Islam, a surprising number of North Carolinians are apparently willing to make an exception.
Republicans in North Carolina, to be precise: a survey last week from Public Policy Polling found that 40 percent of GOP voters in the state believe the practice of Islam should be made illegal. Only 40 percent of GOP voters believe it should definitely be legal; the other 20 percent say they’re not sure.
PPP director Tom Jensen says he asked the question to determine how GOP voters were reacting to comments made about Islam by leading presidential candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Jensen says judging from the numbers, those comments are unlikely to have hurt them, at least among their current supporters. (Indeed a majority of Trump supporters, 52 percent, say they believe Islam should be illegal.)
And while most GOP voters aren’t willing to go as far as banning the entire religion, a very large majority – 72 percent – say a Muslim should not be allowed to serve as President. (The same majority, 72 percent, also say they believe Barack Obama is “waging a war on Christianity.”)
Those findings are not unique to North Carolina: Jensen says PPP found similar results in Iowa the previous week.
Where do Democrats and independents stand? Jensen says so far, PPP has been asking the question exclusively to Republican voters because of the Trump/Carson connection – but they’re going to start polling all voters on the question in subsequent surveys.
Tom Jensen spoke with Aaron Keck on WCHL last week.
Other results from PPP’s North Carolina survey:
The Pat McCrory/Roy Cooper race for governor remains extremely tight, but McCrory has regained a lead, 44-41, for the first time since spring. McCrory’s approval rating is still low, though, at 35 percent. Similar story in the race for U.S. Senate: Richard Burr also has a low approval rating, 29 percent, but he leads all his potential Democratic challengers by at least five points.
The General Assembly is extremely unpopular, with an approval rating of only 14 percent, and there’s bipartisan agreement on that one: 60 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Democrats disapprove of the NCGA. Republican and Democratic legislators are about equally unpopular, though, and Democrats lead the generic 2016 ballot by only four points – so there’s no sign of a sea change in the coming election.
The presidential race is mostly unchanged from August. Donald Trump is leading the GOP presidential primary race with 26 percent of North Carolina Republicans. Ben Carson is second with 21 percent, Carly Fiorina is third with 12 percent, and Marco Rubio is fourth with 10 percent. Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 51-23 (also mostly unchanged from last month), but Joe Biden would do well here if he entered the race: he’d get 30 percent of North Carolina Democrats, while Clinton’s support would shrink to 37 percent.
70 percent of North Carolinians (including a slight majority of Republicans, 51 percent) support raising the minimum wage to at least $10 an hour. 89 percent support background checks on all gun purchases, with very little difference across party lines.
Undecided voters will likely determine the Chapel Hill Town Council and Mayoral leadership this November, according to new polling numbers.
PPP Director Tom Jensen says, with more than a month to go before Election Day, a lot could change between now and November 3. But as it stands, incumbent Mark Kleinschmidt is leading the Mayoral candidates with 37 percent of respondents favoring a fourth term for Kleinschmidt. Challenger Pam Hemminger checked in with 25 percent of respondents and Gary Kahn is polling at five percent. Kleinschmidt also boasts a 48/27 approval rating. Jensen says it would be “pretty unusual” to lose when a candidate’s numbers are “that solid,” but 33 percent of those surveyed say they are still undecided on who they will vote for in the ballot box in the coming weeks.
Listen to Tom Jensen’s full interview with WCHL’s Aaron Keck below:
Meanwhile, 42 percent of respondents say they are undecided on their first choice for Town Council and 52 percent say they have no clear second choice. 22 percent of those surveyed say they support challenger Nancy Oates as their first or second choice among CHTC candidates, followed by incumbents Jim Ward, 19 percent, Donna Bell, 18 percent, and Lee Storrow, 13 percent. Challengers David Schwartz, 11 percent, Jessica Anderson, nine percent, Michael Parker, eight percent, Adam Jones, five percent, and Paul Neebe, three percent, round out the crowded field.
Jensen says another way to look at the numbers shows incumbents – Bell, Storrow and Ward – totaling 50 percent of the support, and CHALT-backed candidates – Oates, Schwartz and Anderson – receiving 42 percent of the support. Hemminger has been endorsed by CHALT in the race for Mayor.
There is one open seat on the Town Council after Matt Czajkowski resigned to work for a non-profit in Rwanda earlier this year.
Jensen points out endorsements in the next month from the Sierra Club and the Indy Week have the potential to greatly shuffle the deck of hopefuls.
The polling shows that Chapel Hillians are as divided on issues in the town as they are the candidates hoping to make decisions on those issues in the future; 43 percent of voters think the town is headed in the right direction, while 39 percent think it’s on the wrong track; 50 percent of voters think the town is growing at the right pace, 33 percent think it’s growing too fast and eight percent answered Chapel Hill is growing too slow.
One area that received more support was the Orange-Durham Light Rail project, with 69 percent of those surveyed supporting the plan.
66 percent of voters say they’re inclined to support proposed bonds.
Meanwhile, 27 percent of voters support the Obey Creek project with 44 percent saying they are opposed to the development.
Jensen says the poll was commissioned because of interest, not because of a candidate had requested or paid for it. He cites the fact that he lives in Chapel Hill helped decide to go forward with the survey.
You can read over the entire results here, ChapelHillPoll2015http://chapelboro.com/featured/poll-shows-tight-race-ahead-for-chapel-hill-municipal-election/
Barack Obama is a US-born Christian, not a foreign-born Muslim. But even today, a majority of Republican voters say they believe otherwise.
That’s the result of the latest national survey from Public Policy Polling. According to the poll, 54 percent of GOP voters still think President Obama is a Muslim, and only 29 percent are willing to say Obama was born in the U.S.
(To put that into perspective, 40 percent of GOP voters say Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz was born in the United States. Cruz was definitely born in Canada, by all accounts including his own.)
Donald Trump supporters are even more likely to hold those views than GOP voters as a whole. 66 percent of Trump voters say President Obama is a Muslim; 61 percent say they don’t think he was born in the U.S. (PPP director Tom Jensen says these responses may come from voters treating these factual questions as if they were opinion questions: “I know he was born in Hawaii, but I feel like he’s not really an American.”)
But on other points, GOP voters aren’t nearly as conservative as they’re often depicted. The vast majority – 78 percent – support requiring criminal background checks for firearm purchases. And 49 percent support an increase in the federal minimum wage, against a combined 47 percent who either want to keep it level, reduce it or eliminate it.
In the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Donald Trump still leads his competitors by a wide margin with 29 percent of the vote. In second place with 15 percent is the other ‘outsider’ candidate, Ben Carson; Jeb Bush is a distant third with 9 percent, followed by Carly Fiorina at 8 percent. Carson may have an edge as we draw closer to the actual primaries, though: he’s the most popular candidate in the field with a 68 percent popularity rating, and he’s also the most common second choice among GOP voters – so as candidates gradually drop out of the race, Carson could see his vote share rapidly increase.
PPP director Tom Jensen spoke Wednesday with WCHL’s Aaron Keck.
The poll also showed Hillary Clinton maintaining a big lead in the race for the Democratic nomination: she gets 55 percent of the vote, compared to 20 percent for Bernie Sanders. (Clinton also led Sanders by 35 points in PPP’s July national survey.)
Is Donald Trump going away? Not yet.
Public Policy Polling‘s latest survey finds Trump expanding his lead in the race for the GOP nomination, at least in New Hampshire: 35 percent of Republican voters there say they’ll support Trump in the primary, with John Kasich coming in a distant second at 11 percent and Carly Fiorina (10 percent) the only other challenger in double digits.
(A sign of just how topsy-turvy the GOP race has been: when PPP last surveyed New Hampshire in April, neither Trump, Kasich nor Fiorina were even on their list of possible candidates.)
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders is widening his lead in the Granite State over Hillary Clinton: he now leads her 43-35 among Democratic voters, and both candidates fare equally well in hypothetical general-election matchups against the leading Republicans. (And both candidates fare quite well in those matchups: the races are close, but PPP director Tom Jensen says Sanders and Clinton lead every possible GOP candidate except Kasich.)
Tom Jensen of PPP spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck on Wednesday.
Donald Trump has momentum in North Carolina, and so does Deez Nuts.
That’s according to the latest Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina voters. Trump now has a double-digit lead over his closest opponents in the race for the GOP presidential nomination: he’s at 24 percent, with Ben Carson in second at 14 percent and Jeb Bush in third with 13 percent. Of the 17 candidates in the race, Trump and Carson – the only two candidates with no experience in elective office – were the two candidates with the biggest gains over last month.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to have a wide lead: she’s at 55 percent, with second-place Bernie Sanders well behind at 19 percent. One bit of good news for Sanders: Clinton supporters have long argued that Clinton is more ‘electable,’ but Sanders matches up almost as well as Clinton against their hypothetical Republican opponents. (The downside is that both Clinton and Sanders trail most of those opponents – including Trump – albeit by very slim margins. Ben Carson is the only candidate whose lead is above the margin of error.)
The numbers also suggest we should expect close races for governor and U.S. Senator next year too. Democratic attorney general Roy Cooper leads incumbent Republican governor Pat McCrory by three points, 42-39; that’s the third month in a row that PPP has found Cooper with a slight lead. PPP’s Jim Williams says McCrory tends to poll worse when the General Assembly is in session, but (in spite of their ongoing conflicts) voters seem to be lumping McCrory more and more with the GA – and that’s bad news for the governor, as the GA’s popularity rating is only 15 percent.
The race for U.S. Senate is still very uncertain: Republican incumbent Richard Burr leads all his hypothetical Democratic challengers (including Heath Shuler and Deborah Ross) by at least seven points – but Burr’s popularity rating is only 31 percent, suggesting possible vulnerability once the Democrats agree on a candidate who can then develop name recognition statewide. Williams says the numbers continue to suggest that the Senate race will turn largely on national trends: if it’s a good year for Republicans nationwide, Burr will win; if not, the Democratic candidate will likely beat him.
Jim Williams spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck on Thursday.
Perhaps the strangest finding of PPP’s North Carolina survey: in a hypothetical three-way matchup with Clinton and Trump, independent candidate “Deez Nuts” would get 9 percent of the vote. (“Deez Nuts” is the name provided by someone who filed to run for president with the FEC. That ‘someone’ turned out to be a 15-year-old boy in Iowa, but he’s still polling fairly well regardless.)
Perhaps a more significant (if equally serious) third-party challenge may come from Donald Trump, who says he may run as an independent if he doesn’t win the GOP nomination. If he does, it could benefit the Democrats: Hillary Clinton would win a three-way matchup with Jeb Bush and Trump, 38 to 28 to 27 respectively. (Trump would win the most independent voters, though.)http://chapelboro.com/news/election/yes-its-come-to-this-trump-nuts-gain-momentum-in-prez-race/
The race for the Republican presidential nomination has been ever-shifting and unpredictable from the start – and according to pollsters, it may remain so for a long time.
Many observers were hoping Thursday night’s first debate would separate the wheat from the chaff, but Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling says there’s enough uncertainty among GOP voters that it may not be clear who will get the nomination until well into primary season. (Even as second-tier candidates fall away, he says, it’s not obvious which first-tier candidate will pull in more of their supporters.)
Jensen spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck Thursday.
For more numbers from PPP, including results from a recent survey of voters in Minnesota, visit PublicPolicyPolling.com.http://chapelboro.com/featured/expect-uncertainty-in-gop-race-for-months-ppp/
The numbers are in: more North Carolinians approve of sharks than oppose redistricting reform or background checks for gun purchases.
That’s the result of the latest state survey from Public Policy Polling. PPP pollsters asked about sharks in the wake of this summer’s spike in shark attacks. Most North Carolinians don’t have an opinion about sharks one way or another, but 15 percent say they see them favorably (versus 22 percent who don’t like them).
Compare that to our views on universal background checks for gun purchases: 86 percent of NC voters say they support them, against only 10 percent who are opposed.
North Carolinians are almost equally sold on the proposal to put a nonpartisan committee in charge of redrawing legislative district lines. More voters are undecided on this one, but those who have made up their minds are almost all in favor of it: 55 percent support nonpartisan redistricting, while only 10 percent, again, are opposed.
(According to the survey, both nonpartisan redistricting and background checks enjoy widespread support across party lines. In fact, Republican voters are less likely to oppose nonpartisan redistricting than Democrats are – even though nonpartisan redistricting would presumably benefit Democrats at a time when the GOP controls the legislature.)
PPP director Tom Jensen spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck.
Other results from the PPP survey:
Republicans are evenly split, but in general, most North Carolinans (by a 54-28 margin) say that states should go along with Supreme Court decisions, like them or not (rather than resist, as some state and local officials are trying to do with same-sex marriage).
North Carolinians are more split on the Confederate flag: 38 percent support continuing to fly it; 48 percent are opposed.
The General Assembly remains unpopular, with only 20 percent approving – but voters disapprove of Democratic legislators just as much as Republicans. Democrats lead the generic ballot, 46-42, but that’s a smaller lead than they held at this point two years ago – and not nearly big enough to have any hope of retaking control of the GA.
And back to sharks: notwithstanding the scary headlines, the vast majority (82%) of North Carolinians who typically travel to the beach say the recent wave of shark attacks will have no impact on their travel plans. (Interestingly, there is a partisan divide here: 20 percent of Democrats say they’re less likely to go into the water, versus only 9 percent of Republicans. PPP director Tom Jensen says he has no idea why that is.)
Two national surveys this week from Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling show Ted Cruz making a move in the race for the GOP presidential nomination – and generally favorable views among Americans for all but one Final Four team. (No, not that one.)
Recent polls of Republican voters showed Scott Walker and Jeb Bush beginning to pull away from the rest of the field – but Cruz leapt into the upper tier after officially announcing his candidacy last week. In the latest PPP survey, Walker still leads with 20 percent of the vote and Bush is still in second with 17 percent, but Cruz is only slightly behind with 16 percent – up from just 5 percent a month ago. (That gain is due mostly to a jump for Cruz among voters who identify as “very conservative”: 33 percent of those voters said they favored Cruz, up from 11 percent last month.) Walker’s 20-percent support is down from 25 percent last month.
Two other potential candidates also poll in double digits: Rand Paul and Ben Carson both earned the support of 10 percent of GOP voters (though that’s a sharp drop for Carson: he was at 18 percent a month ago). Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie and Rick Perry all trail far behind – though Rubio actually has the highest favorability rating of all the candidates, so PPP director Tom Jensen says he may be poised to make a move later this year.
On a lighter note, PPP also surveyed Americans’ opinions of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Kentucky, Wisconsin and Michigan State. In all four cases, only about half of those surveyed had any opinion about the schools one way or the other – but about 30 percent of Americans say they have a positive view of each school. Where they differ is in the negative column: Kentucky turns out to be more disliked than the other three schools (25% to Duke’s 20%, MSU’s 16%, and Wisconsin’s 15%). Jensen says that’s likely a product of Kentucky being such a juggernaut in college basketball this year: everybody likes the underdog.
Tom Jensen spoke with WCHL’s Aaron Keck on Thursday.
Other results from the survey: Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo are the two most popular Final Four coaches; Facebook is the only social media outlet that more Americans like than dislike; Congress’s approval rating is still only 11 percent; Americans have a slightly more positive attitude toward millionaires than toward billionaires; and Americans generally favor making Puerto Rico the 51st state (by a 42-34 margin, with Democrats strongly in favor and Republicans slightly opposed).
A pair of surveys released last week by Public Policy Polling suggest that when it comes to the 2016 election, the state of Pennsylvania is not far removed from North Carolina.
Just like in North Carolina, Pennsylvania’s 2016 Senate race will feature a Republican incumbent (Pat Toomey) with low approval ratings (28%) and little name recognition (37% of voters have no opinion of him at all), running against one of a number of even-lesser-known Democratic challengers. As with North Carolina’s Richard Burr, Toomey’s support is weak but his potential opponents aren’t particularly strong, so he’s starting out the 2016 cycle with slight leads over most of his would-be challengers.
Meanwhile in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton continues to lead by a wide margin in the contest for the Democratic nomination, but the Republican field is still muddy: Ben Carson (18%), Jeb Bush (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) are the only candidates polling in double digits, while New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s support (9%) has dropped precipitously and Pennsylvania native Rick Santorum (6%) enjoys little support at all from his own home state. (As for the general election, Clinton currently leads all her potential GOP opponents by wide margins. The polls are much closer in North Carolina, but the Pennsylvania numbers are still a good early sign for Democrats: Pennsylvania was an important swing state in 2000 and 2004, but since then it’s turned increasingly blue. A good year for Democrats at the top of the ticket could also have residual effects in other races further down the ballot – close races for Senate seats, for instance.)
WCHL’s Aaron Keck spoke with PPP director Tom Jensen about the Pennsylvania numbers and what they might suggest about North Carolina.
We’re now more than a month out from Election Day 2014 – and the national election is now officially over, as Louisiana Democrat Mary Landrieu just lost a runoff to keep her seat in the U.S. Senate.
That brings the GOP’s majority in the Senate to 54-46 – and it means the so-called “Solid South” is solid once again. Not counting Florida, every single state in the Deep South, from North Carolina over to Arkansas, will have two Republican Senators as of January.
But Public Policy Polling director Tom Jensen says there is reason for Democrats in North Carolina to celebrate, at least: Kay Hagan lost her Senate seat, but North Carolina Democrats gained seats in the General Assembly, and that bucked a pretty strong trend.
Jensen spoke last week with WCHL’s Aaron Keck.
You can find PPP’s latest numbers online at PublicPolicyPolling.com – and look for a survey of North Carolina voters, coming out later this week.http://chapelboro.com/news/election/2016-election-nc-will-even-larger-focus/