Chansky’s Notebook: May The Odds Be With Us

By odds alone, the Tar Heels have a great chance this weekend.

Second-seeded UNC’s 21-point loss to Texas A&M in the 2018 NCAA tournament in Charlotte came two days after the biggest shock ever in the Big Dance. Remember, Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a 16, blown out by Maryland Baltimore Country at a wild Spectrum Center that was witnessing history.

Heading into this year’s tourney, No. 1 seeds have a 135-1 record against 16s. So it is highly unlikely the Tar Heels will lose to Iona College in tonight’s first-round game at Nationwide Center in Columbus, Ohio. Lightning can’t strike twice now, can it?

A couple of side notes about Iona, which is in New Rochelle, New York and was coached by the late Jim Valvano before he went south to N.C. State in 1980. At his introductory press conference that was more like a Shecky Greene stand-up routine, Jimmy V said he introduced himself to recruits and their families by saying, “Jim Valvano, Iona College,” and they would often say, “You’re too young to own a college.” UNC has never played Iona in the NCAA tourney but second-seeded Duke pasted the Gaels last year.

Anyway, one of the biggest benefits of achieving a top seed is having those odds with you through the second round, too. No. 1s have a 116-19 record against the 8-9 survivor, which is an 86 percent chance of winning. UNC has been on both ends of those upsets as a No. 1 seed, losing to No. 8 Penn in 1979 and to No. 9 Boston College in 1994. The Tar Heels were big upset winners twice, both as No. 8 seeds, stunning top-ranked Oklahoma on Rick Fox’s buzzer-beating layup in 1990 and knocking off No. 1 seed Stanford in 2000 on the way to Bill Guthridge’s second Final Four in three years.

So, odds are great that we’ll be talking about a Sweet 16 match-up Monday morning after Carolina’s victories over Iona and Sunday against either Utah State or Washington. Most pundits are picking Utah State with a great running team to defeat Washington, which plays zone much like Syracuse.

In the regional rounds, however, the odds get somewhat slimmer for No. 1 seeds, who have won Sweet 16 match-ups 81 percent of the time. But the pressure is really on in the Elite Eight round, where top seeds have gone 56-38, only a 60% chance of reaching the Final Four. So, hold on to your bracket, here we go.

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