Fan Duel claims that Carolina football is in trouble.
As a sports betting site, Fan Duel should know its stuff. So I guess reporting on its picks for the 2019 college football season is okay. I think.
But the site’s victory predictions aren’t pretty for Mack Brown’s return to the UNC sideline, which begins with the August 31 game against South Carolina in Charlotte. The Tar Heels have a win predictor of 4.5, meaning they will win four and tie one game even though ties are no longer possible in college football due to playing overtime until somebody wins.
Only one of UNC’s opponents is not rated by predicted victories; Mercer of the Southern Conference is in the Football Championship Subdivision, or the old Division II. Of the Tar Heels’ 11 other opponents, only one – Georgia Tech – is picked by Fan Duel to win fewer games (4), maybe because the Yellow Jackets have a new head coach in Geoff Collins from Temple.
Let’s see how many games Fan Duel says the other UNC opponents will win. South Carolina (6), Miami (8.5), Wake Forest, a non-ACC game this season (7), Appalachian State (9), Clemson (11.5), Virginia Tech (8.5), Duke (6.5), Virginia (6.5), Pittsburgh (6) and N.C. State (7.5).
Given Carolina will beat Mercer on Senior Day November 23 and probably Georgia Tech on October 5, where are the other two and half victories coming from? Maybe the two opponents predicted to win six games, South Carolina and Pitt.
The Gamecocks are more experienced than the Tar Heels but certainly beatable with a coach, Will Muschamp, who used to be Mack’s defensive coordinator at Texas and, at one point, his designated successor in Austin. And the Heels certainly seem to have Pitt’s number, having beaten the Panthers six straight times.
Perhaps that other “half victory” will come over App State at home or one of the two ACC teams predicted by Fan Duel to win 6.5 games. That would be Duke and Virginia, which also visit Kenan Stadium on consecutive Saturdays, October 26 and November 2.
How about giving Brown and the boys all three for having new home turf advantage. That would be seven wins and a bowl game in Mack’s first season back. Would you take that? I would.
So take that, Fan Duel.
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