Happy New Year? A 2023 ACC Basketball Snapshot, With Each Team’s Rankings, Status
By David Glenn
OK, this message may be a few days late, but … Happy New Year!
If 2023 is going to be a happy year for Atlantic Coast Conference men’s basketball, the league may need the same sort of late-season surge that salvaged a disappointing 2021-22 regular season.
At this point, the league has nobody ranked in the national top 10 (a rarity) and only Miami, Virginia and Duke ranked in the Top 25 of the major polls.
Here are our ACC power rankings, from 1 through 15, with lots of detailed information on each team and the usual reminder: These are NOT predictions of future results/standings but rather a reflection of the teams’ “body of work” in games already played (through Tuesday).
The following conference matchups are on the schedule today: Miami at Georgia Tech (RSN, 7 pm), Duke at NC State (ACCN, 7 pm), Wake Forest at UNC (ACCN, 9 pm) and Clemson at Virginia Tech (ESPNU, 9 pm).
(NOTE: (n) = neutral court; vs. = home game; efficiency rankings from KenPom.com)
- Miami (13-1, 4-0 ACC)
Head Coach: Jim Larranaga (73, 12th season leading Hurricanes)
Best Wins: 66-64 vs. UVa, 68-61 vs. Rutgers, 74-64 over Providence (n), 66-64 at UCF
Losses: 88-70 to Maryland (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 39/34/16
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 13/104
Most Starts: G Isaiah Wong, G Nigel Pack, G Wooga Poplar, F Jordan Miller, C Norchad Omier
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Yes
Veteran coach Jim Larranaga, who led the Hurricanes to their first/only ACC title in 2013 and the best NCAA Tournament finish (Elite Eight) in program history in 2022, may be in the process of writing the quintessential 2023 college basketball success story. Thanks in large part to the Name-Image-Likeness revolution, which since last season has enabled college athletes to accept endorsement money and other compensation from third parties, All-ACC guard Isaiah Wong stayed at Miami for his senior season, and UM added two of the ACC’s highest-profile transfers: Kansas State guard Nigel Pack (1st-team All-Big 12; $800,000 NIL deal) and Arkansas State center Norchad Omier (Sun Belt Player of the Year). Returnee Jordan Miller is an excellent player, too.
- Virginia (10-3, 2-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Tony Bennett (53, 14th season leading Cavaliers)
Best Wins: 86-79 over Baylor (n), 70-61 over Illinois (n), 70-68 at Michigan, 74-56 at GT
Losses: 69-61 vs. Houston, 66-64 at Miami, 68-65 at Pitt
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 13/15/26
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 20/20
Most Starts: PG Kihei Clark, G Reece Beekman, G Armaan Franklin, F Jayden Gardner, C Kadin Shedrick
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Yes
The main preseason question about Virginia centered on the fact that the Cavaliers were the only ACC team returning all five starters: Given that UVa was an NIT team last season, was that automatically a good thing? So far this season, the answer is yes. Among 363 Division I teams, the Cavs rank fourth in experience and ninth in continuity, and it shows in all the right ways; they’re the only ACC team that’s in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a combination that typically translates to high-level success. UVa also offers the most balanced scoring in the conference; all five starters average between 9 and 12 points per game.
- Duke (11-3, 2-1 ACC)
Head Coach: Jon Scheyer (35, 1st season leading Blue Devils)
Best Wins: 81-72 vs. Ohio St., 71-64 over Xavier (n), 74-62 over Iowa (n), 86-67 vs. FSU
Losses: 69-64 to Kansas (n), 75-56 to Purdue (n), 81-70 at Wake
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 14/17/19
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 22/29
Most Starts: PG Jeremy Roach, G Tyrese Proctor, F Mark Mitchell, F Kyle Filipowski, C Dereck Lively II
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Yes
Long before coaching his first game as Duke’s full-time leader, Jon Scheyer emphatically answered one key question about his ability to follow legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski successfully. Can Scheyer recruit? Yes. The Blue Devils’ freshman class was ranked #1 nationally, and it includes five of the ACC’s six top-ranked true freshmen: forward Dariq Whitehead (#2 nationally), center Dereck Lively II (#3), forward Kyle Filipowski (#4), forward Mark Mitchell (#20) and guard Tyrese Proctor (#27). Filipowski (14 ppg, 9 rpg) quickly has become one of the league’s best players, and Mitchell also is a productive starter, but the rest of the rookies don’t play at a high level consistently yet. The group’s collective growth is the key to Duke’s season.
- Virginia Tech (11-3, 1-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Mike Young (59, 4th season leading Hokies)
Best Wins: 80-72 vs. UNC, 70-65 over Oklahoma St. (n), 61-59 over Penn St. (n), 77-49 vs. Dayton
Losses: 77-75 at Charleston, 70-65 (OT) at BC, 77-75 at Wake
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 29/39/25
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 25/64
Most Starts: PG Sean Pedulla, G Hunter Cattoor, G Darius Maddox, F Justyn Mutts, C Grant Basile
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Yes
Virginia Tech and Virginia are the only ACC teams without a double-digit defeat this season; two of the Hokies’ three losses were by two points, and the other went to overtime. Also like the Cavaliers, Tech puts out a starting lineup in which every player averages at least 9 points per game and is capable of a double-digit scoring output on any given night. Even better, the Hokies have had an offensive star emerge in sophomore point guard Sean Pedulla (17 ppg, 4 apg), a fearless, gritty player who also passes well. Wing guard Hunter Cattoor (40% threes) and Swiss army knife Justyn Mutts (14 ppg, 8 rpg, 4 apg) also know and execute their roles extremely well.
- North Carolina (9-5, 1-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Hubert Davis (52, 2nd season leading Tar Heels)
Best Wins: 89-84 (OT) over Ohio St. (n), 80-76 over Michigan (n), 80-64 vs. JMU, 102-86 vs. Charleston
Losses: 70-65 to Iowa St. (n), 103-101 (4OT) to Alabama (n), 77-65 at IU, 80-72 at VT, 76-74 at Pitt
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 23/29/10
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 12/60
Most Starts: G RJ Davis, G Caleb Love, F Leaky Black, F Pete Nance, C Armando Bacot
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Yes
Historically speaking, preseason #1 teams and others with national championship aspirations simply don’t start their seasons in this sort of up-and-down manner. While the answers for this year’s Tar Heels aren’t always obvious, the key questions moving forward are crystal clear. 1-Which version of junior guard Caleb Love will show up for the rest of the season? When he’s deferring to Armando Bacot, slashing to the basket, creating shots for others, making good decisions and playing tough defense, Carolina is very tough to beat. When he’s taking low-percentage shots, turning the ball over, making poor decisions and giving up easy baskets, Carolina becomes very beatable. 2-Will anyone besides sixth man Puff Johnson inspire coach Hubert Davis to trust his bench more often? Right now, only two coaches in the entire country use their reserves less than Davis does. 3-Can the Tar Heels find their 3-point shooting strokes? As a team, UNC is hitting only 30.8 percent from long range, second-worst among ACC teams, and both starting guards, Love and RJ Davis, are at or below that level after converting 36-37% last season.
- Pittsburgh (11-4, 4-0 ACC)
Head Coach: Jeff Capel (47, 5th season leading Panthers)
Best Wins: 68-65 vs. UVa, 76-74 vs. UNC, 87-58 at Northwestern, 68-60 at NCSU
Losses: 81-56 vs. WVU, 91-60 to Michigan (n), 71-67 to VCU (n), 75-74 at Vanderbilt
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 64/71/44
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 42/94
Most Starts: PG Nelly Cummings, G Jamarius Burton, G Greg Elliott, F Blake Hinson, C Federiko Federiko
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Probably
In his first four seasons at Pitt, coach Jeff Capel had four straight losing records and thus no postseason trips of any kind. The Panthers’ ACC finishes in those years were, in order, 14th (tied), 13th (tied), 12th and 11th (tied). Although his contract extends through 2026-27, Capel needs to show at some point that he’s the man who can help Pitt climb the league ladder and enjoy March Madness. Thanks largely to the modern-day “portal” — the team’s top six players, led by guard Jamarius Burton and forward Blake Hinson, consist of five major college transfers and one junior college transfer — and huge wins over UVa and UNC, this looks like the year.
- Clemson (11-3, 3-0 ACC)
Head Coach: Brad Brownell (54, 13th season leading Tigers)
Best Wins: 101-94 (2OT) vs. Penn St., 77-57 vs. Wake, 78-64 vs. NCSU, 85-57 over Richmond (n)
Losses: 60-58 at South Carolina, 74-71 to Iowa (n), 76-58 to Loyola-Chicago (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 58/76/66
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 44/81
Most Starts: PG Chase Hunter, G Brevin Galloway, G Alex Hemenway, F Hunter Tyson, C PJ Hall
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Maybe
Through his first 12 seasons at Clemson, coach Brad Brownell took the Tigers to only three NCAA Tournaments (and three NITs), yet he gradually solidified the universal respect of the coaching community. How? Well, he works at a football-first school that has had only occasional success (and zero ACC titles in 70 years) in men’s basketball, and he only rarely signs top-tier recruits, in stark contrast to the league’s most historically successful programs. Yet he often overachieves, and he may be doing so again. Fifth-year forward Hunter Tyson (16 ppg, 10 rpg) symbolizes both the individual improvement and team-first attitude of this year’s Tigers.
- Wake Forest (10-4, 2-1 ACC)
Head Coach: Steve Forbes (57, 3rd season leading Demon Deacons)
Best Wins: 81-70 vs. Duke, 78-75 at Wisconsin, 77-75 vs. VT, 81-71 vs. Georgia
Losses: 77-75 to LMU (n), 77-57 at Clemson, 72-70 to LSU (n), 81-57 at Rutgers
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 87/80/22
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 65/109
Most Starts: PG Tyree Appleby, G Daivien Williamson, G Cameron Hildreth, F Damari Monsanto, F Andrew Carr
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Maybe
When Wake Forest hired coach Steve Forbes in 2020, there weren’t many questions about his hoops acumen. He had been an extremely successful head coach at two prominent junior colleges, and he had an impressive five-year run at East Tennessee State. There were concerns about building via transfers (as he did at ETSU) at an elite university such as Wake, but the NCAA rule change enabling immediate eligibility, and then the explosion of the transfer portal, negated such worries. One year after the Alondes Williams/Jake LaRavia dynamic duo, the Deacons’ impressive starting five consists of four more transfers and an international player.
- North Carolina State (11-4, 1-3 ACC)
Head Coach: Kevin Keatts (50, 6th season leading Wolfpack)
Best Wins: 76-64 over Dayton (n), 76-61 over Butler (n), 70-66 over Vanderbilt (n), 92-73 vs. Furman
Losses: 80-74 to Kansas (n), 68-60 vs. Pitt, 80-73 at Miami, 78-64 at Clemson
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 59/64/80
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 46/80
Most Starts: G Terquavion Smith, G Jarkel Joiner, G Casey Morsell, F Jack Clark, C Dusan Mahorcic (injured)
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Maybe
Coach Kevin Keatts earned only a single NCAA bid during his first five years in Raleigh, and that came in his first season (2017-18). After the 11-21, last-place train wreck of 2021-22, the Wolfpack desperately needed an upgrade, and Keatts achieved that. With Terquavion Smith making the NBA wait another year, Casey Morsell (a UVa transfer prior to last season) becoming one of the most improved players in the ACC, and an influx of talent from the 2022 transfer portal (Jarkel Joiner from Ole Miss, Jack Clark from LaSalle, Dusan Mahorcic from Utah, and new starting center DJ Burns from Winthrop), the Pack at least has given itself a chance.
- Syracuse (10-5, 3-1 ACC)
Head Coach: Jim Boeheim (78, 47th season leading Orange)
Best Wins: 74-71 (OT) over Richmond (n), 62-61 at ND, 78-63 vs. Cornell, 79-65 vs. BC
Worst Losses: 73-72 vs. Bryant, 80-68 vs. Colgate, 84-82 vs. Pitt, 76-69 (OT) to St. John’s (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 91/137/154
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 78/117
Most Starts: G Joe Girard, G Judah Mintz, F Chris Bell, F Benny Williams, C Jesse Edwards
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Unlikely
While most ACC teams are relying much more heavily on veterans, coach Jim Boeheim — out of necessity — immediately plugged two true freshmen (guard Judah Mintz and forward Chris Bell) into his starting lineup and two more true freshmen (forward Maliq Brown and guard Justin Taylor) into the off-the-bench portion of his eight-man rotation. While Mintz (15.8 ppg, 4.2 apg) has been among the ACC’s most productive rookies, there also have been plenty of growing pains for the newcomers, especially on defense. At the midway point of the regular season, the Orange still lacked a single victory over a likely NCAA Tournament team.
- Notre Dame (8-7, 0-4 ACC)
Head Coach: Mike Brey (63, 23rd season leading Irish)
Best Wins: 70-52 vs. Michigan St., 88-81 vs. Youngstown St.
Worst Losses: 63-51 to St. Bonaventure (n), 73-72 at FSU, 70-63 at BC, 77-62 to Georgia (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 117/169/166
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 58/219
Most Starts: G Trey Wertz, G JJ Starling, G Cormac Ryan, F Dane Goodwin, F Nate Laszewski
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? Unlikely
Three things you usually can expect from Mike Brey-coached teams are a dynamic offense, a vulnerable defense, and not much help from the reserves. Unfortunately for the Irish, this year’s team has extreme versions of those second and third elements, and not in a good way. In fact, the Irish bench is so extremely shallow this season that the reserves are playing only 14 percent of the team’s total minutes. (That is dead last among 363 Division I teams; the national average hovers around 31-32 percent.) While the team’s starting five is talented and can be fun to watch, its lack of both a true point guard and a true post player can be costly at both ends.
- Georgia Tech (7-6, 0-3 ACC)
Head Coach: Josh Pastner (45, 7th season leading Yellow Jackets)
Best Wins: 79-77 vs. Georgia
Worst Losses: 79-66 vs. Clemson, 81-65 at Iowa, 68-64 to Utah (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 129/148/141
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 161/116
Most Starts: PG Deivon Smith, G Deebo Coleman, G Miles Kelly, G Kyle Sturdivant, F Jalon Moore
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? No
This has become a predictable position for Georgia Tech, which made only one NCAA Tournament (after winning the ACC Tournament during the pandemic-plagued 2021 season) in coach Josh Pastner’s first six seasons in Atlanta. The Yellow Jackets simply don’t have enough offensive firepower to hang with many conference opponents, although sophomore guard Miles Kelly (14 ppg, 40% threes) has improved dramatically after a modest freshman campaign. Tech’s resume to this point is an unusual mix in that all six of its losses are to quality opponents, but its only victory of any significance so far is over rival Georgia, a middling SEC team at best.
- Florida State (4-11, 2-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Leonard Hamilton (74, 21st year leading Seminoles)
Best Wins: 73-72 vs. Notre Dame
Worst Losses: 83-74 vs. Stetson, 80-63 to Siena (n), 79-72 vs. Troy, 75-58 to Nebraska (n)
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 164/240/273
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 142/199
Most Starts: G Caleb Mills, G Darin Green Jr., G Matthew Cleveland, F Cam’Ron Fletcher, C Naheem McLeod
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? No
Coach Leonard Hamilton, a three-time ACC coach of the year and FSU’s all-time wins leader, actually had losing seasons in two of his first three seasons (2003 and 2005) in Tallahassee, but he hasn’t had one since. That 17-year over-.500 streak is now in jeopardy, given the team’s 4-11 start, which included uncharacteristically poor defense from the Seminoles, who have only one starter back from last year’s 17-14 squad. Next week, FSU finally will welcome freshman Baba Miller, a 6-11 international star (raised in Mallorca, trained with Real Madrid in Spain) and possible NBA lottery pick; he has been serving a controversial 16-game NCAA suspension.
- Boston College (8-7, 2-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Earl Grant (46, 2nd year leading Eagles)
Best Wins: 70-65 (OT) vs. VT, 71-56 over George Mason (n), 70-63 vs. ND
Worst Losses: 69-64 vs. Maine, 74-71 (OT) vs. UNH, 70-54 to Tarleton St. (n), 79-65 at Syracuse
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 168/219/179
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 273/90
Most Starts: PG Jaeden Zackery, G Makai Ashton-Langford, G Mason Madsen, F CJ Penha Jr., F TJ Bickerstaff
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? No
This team actually has several intriguing elements: loads of experience, four returning starters, and four players (among the most in the ACC) who entered 2022-23 having posted at least one college season with an average of 10 points per game or more. However, especially on offense, the Eagles’ pieces simply haven’t fit together well. BC’s ball movement is poor, no player averages more than two assists per game, and the team’s 3-point shooting (27 percent) is among the worst in the entire nation. Perhaps the recent return of reliable center Quinten Post, who missed the first 13 games with a foot injury, will stabilize this group’s volatile chemistry.
- Louisville (2-13, 0-4 ACC)
Head Coach: Kenny Payne (56, 1st season leading Cardinals)
Best Wins: 94-83 vs. Western Kentucky
Worst Losses: 67-66 vs. Bellarmine, 75-67 vs. Lipscomb, 73-72 vs. Wright St., 61-60 vs. Appalachian St.
KenPom/NET/RPI National Team Rankings (of 363): 271/349/324
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency Rankings (of 363): 314/213
Most Starts: G El Ellis, G/F Mike James, F Jae’lyn Withers, F Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, C Sydney Curry
NCAA Tournament-Caliber Team? No
This is a truly atrocious college basketball team. It has a first-time head coach in former Louisville player Kenny Payne (a freshman on the Cardinals’ 1986 NCAA title team), and its roster ranks among the most inexperienced in the nation. Beyond veteran El Ellis, the team’s guard play is about as poor as you’ll ever see at a major program, as illustrated by the Cards’ brutal 0-9 start and 17 turnovers per game. The last time Louisville won fewer than 10 games in a season was in the early 1940s, during World War II, but that streak is in serious jeopardy.
(featured image via Todd Melet)
David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.
The founding editor and long-time owner of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, he also has contributed to the Durham Herald-Sun, ESPN Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Raycom Sports, SiriusXM and most recently The Athletic. From 1999-2020, he also hosted the David Glenn Show, which became the largest sports radio program in the history of the Carolinas, syndicated in more than 300 North Carolina cities and towns, plus parts of South Carolina and Virginia.
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