Hubert Davis Still Wrestling With UNC’s Depth Dilemma
By David Glenn
There are 363 Division I men’s basketball teams this season. Only four of them have used their bench less often than second-year North Carolina coach Hubert Davis has used his reserves.
“We’re going to need others to step up and play quality minutes out there on the floor,” Davis said earlier this season. “It’s just not sustainable to play your starting five 30-plus minutes a night.”
This is not a new phenomenon under Davis. During the Tar Heels’ roller-coaster 2021-22 season, which magically converted their NCAA Tournament bubble status into a trip to the national championship game, they finished 348th (of 358) in bench utilization.
Last year, UNC’s starters — late in the season, that meant the “Iron Five” of RJ Davis, Caleb Love, Leaky Black, Brady Manek and Armando Bacot — played more than 80 percent of the team’s total minutes. The reserves’ collective minutes (19.8 percent) actually got a boost from Manek, who came off the bench in 12 of the Tar Heels’ 39 games.
The best defense of UNC’s extreme reliance on its starting lineup, of course, ultimately came via the team’s season-saving results. Without the chemistry, confidence and poise developed during the maxing out of the Iron Five’s playing time, and without their collective presence on the floor in pressure situations, would the Tar Heels have been able to win their final five games (including, famously, at Duke) of the regular season, qualify for the NCAA Tournament, then win five more games (including one, famously, over Duke in the Final Four) during that big-bracket stage of March Madness?
The main downside of leaning so heavily on so few players is fatigue. Indeed, Davis admitted that was a problem at times during the 2021-22 season, mainly in the Heels’ 72-59 loss to Virginia Tech at the ACC Tournament and their 72-69 loss to Kansas in the NCAA title game.
“Those were the only two times in the entire season where I thought (fatigue) really hurt us,” Davis said. “That’s definitely one area where we want and need to improve.”
This season, however, Carolina’s starters have played an even higher percentage of the team’s minutes (81.3 percent) during its 8-4 start. The revised “Iron Five,” of course, consists of Love (36 mpg), Davis (35 mpg), Bacot (34 mpg), Black (32 mpg) and transfer Pete Nance (32 mpg).
“We need (other) guys to step up,” Davis said. “But you also need people not only to get playing time and step up, but you also need them to play well. So that’s something we’ll continue to look at and continue to grow.”
For comparison, here are the bench utilization percentages for all 15 ACC teams thus far this season:
- Duke: 33.3%
- Boston College: 32.5%
- Georgia Tech: 31.7%
- Wake Forest: 31.4%
- Pittsburgh: 30.0%
- Louisville: 29.6%
- Syracuse: 29.5%
- Virginia: 29.1%
- Clemson: 29.1%
- Florida State: 28.0%
- Miami: 24.7%
- NC State: 24.1%
- Virginia Tech: 22.0%
- North Carolina: 18.7%
- Notre Dame: 12.6%
UNC’s 89-84 overtime victory over #23 Ohio State on Saturday perfectly illustrated Davis’ ongoing Catch-22 challenge. Love, Davis and Nance all played 40 or more minutes (out of 45). Bacot played 37 minutes, and Black (who battled foul trouble) played 34.
The remaining minutes against the Buckeyes went to junior forward Puff Johnson (13), freshman point guard Seth Trimble (11), freshman guard Tyler Nickel (5) and sophomore guard Dontrez Styles (2). Freshman forward Jalen Washington also briefly entered the game. Sophomore guard D’Marco Dunn was unavailable because of his hand injury.
Collectively, the UNC bench stat line wasn’t pretty: 1-4 field goals, 0-2 three-pointers, 1-3 free throws, two rebounds, two assists, two steals, one blocked shot, three turnovers, four fouls. Most of that production came from Johnson, who is averaging about 16 minutes per game. Among the others, only Trimble (13 mpg) is averaging more than 10 minutes per game.
Could Carolina have played its reserves for more minutes against Ohio State? Of course. Would the Tar Heels have won the game if they did? According to the numbers, probably not.
During the roughly 25 minutes of game time when UNC’s starting lineup was on the court against Ohio State, the Tar Heels outscored the Buckeyes by a whopping 56-43. During the five minutes when the only change was Johnson replacing Bacot (with Nance moving to center), the Heels outscored OSU 13-7.
Thus, those two Carolina lineups (utilizing only its top six players) were PLUS-19 POINTS (69-50) against the Buckeyes, which is a particularly stunning number when you consider that the Tar Heels needed a near-miraculous comeback (when down 66-56 with about seven minutes remaining in regulation, the game analytics put UNC’s chance of winning at a game-low 6 percent) just to extend the game into overtime.
That means all other UNC lineups, collectively, were MINUS-14 POINTS (20-34) on Saturday.
Therein lies Davis’ dilemma, as the leader of the nation’s preseason #1 team, as his unranked Tar Heels prepare to face 7-3 Michigan in Charlotte (7 pm, ESPN) on Wednesday.
Note: Bench utilization statistics from KenPom.com.
David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.
The founding editor and long-time owner of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, he also has contributed to the Durham Herald-Sun, ESPN Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Raycom Sports, SiriusXM and most recently The Athletic. From 1999-2020, he also hosted the David Glenn Show, which became the largest sports radio program in the history of the Carolinas, syndicated in more than 300 North Carolina cities and towns, plus parts of South Carolina and Virginia.
Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our biweekly newsletter.
