No. 11 seed St. John’s enters their NCAA Tournament first round matchup with No. 6 seed Carolina after defeating No. 11 seed Purdue on a last-second shot in Thursday’s First Four. The Red Storm are making their first tournament appearance since 2016 following a 22-8 (13-7 in the Big East) regular season — including a win at perennial powerhouse UConn. Here’s a quick breakdown of the foes from the Big Apple:

Head Coach: Joe Tartamella. Tartamella has been leading the Red Storm for the past 11 seasons and is the reigning Big East Coach of the Year. This is his fourth NCAA Tournament appearance as head coach at St. John’s.

What’s the history? Carolina holds a 6-0 all-time record against St. John’s, but hasn’t faced the Red Storm since the 2009-10 season. The teams have only ever met once in the NCAA Tournament, with the Tar Heels winning 81-79 in overtime in the first round in 1984.

Player to watch: Jayla Everett. Everett hit the game-winner in the First Four against Purdue and is the Red Storm’s leading scorer with 16 points per game. She’s playing her fifth year of college basketball with her third different team, and has averaged at least 11 points per game in each of her five seasons. Before coming to St. John’s, Everett spent two years in the ACC with Pittsburgh. While her team didn’t enjoy much success in those two seasons (the Panthers went 0-2 against Carolina and finished with losing records both years), Everett was the Panthers’ leading scorer. Everett has lit it up from downtown for the Red Storm this season, knocking in 42.6 percent of her three-pointers. She’s also efficient at the line with a 77.3 free-throw percentage.

Stats to watch: St. John’s is one of the best teams in the country at limiting defensive rebounds for the opponent. On average, teams facing the Red Storm grab only 21.3 defensive rebounds per game, the 13th-lowest mark in the country. Carolina averages about 26 defensive rebounds per game, which is a respectable (if not elite) number.

The Red Storm are also proficient at limiting fouls and keeping teams off the free throw line. St. John’s averages just under 13 team fouls per game, which ranks among the lowest numbers in Division 1 college basketball. Opponents of the Red Storm are averaging just 12 free throw attempts per game. On the other side, Carolina averages about 17.5 free throw attempts per game.

Speaking of free throws, St. John’s would have the advantage if the game comes down to the charity stripe. UNC has struggled mightily at the line this season, with its 67.3 percent mark ranking 289th in the country. St. John’s, meanwhile, shoots 76.4 percent on foul shots, which ranks inside the top 50. Four of the Red Storm’s five normal starters shoot at least 77 percent. Only one player on Carolina — Eva Hodgson — shoots that well.

St. John’s also holds better marks in both field goal percentage (43.8 to UNC’s 41.5) and three-point percentage (36.1 to UNC’s 31.4). But Carolina’s defense is built to challenge the Red Storm, as the Tar Heel opponents are shooting just 36.4 percent from the floor and 30.6 percent from downtown.

Deja vu? Deja Kelly has been in a funk. Since making 10 of 20 shots in a win against Wake Forest on February 19, Kelly has shot just 20-65 (30.8 percent) from the floor in UNC’s last four games, including a wretched 4-22 showing against Duke in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. Kelly’s marks on three-pointers and free throws have been down the entire season: she went from 36.1 percent from downtown to just 28.4 percent this season, while her free throw percentage has taken a significant 14-point dip from 85.8 to 71.2.

But Kelly shined brightest in the NCAA Tournament last season, shooting 46.5 percent from the floor (45.5 percent on threes) and averaging 22 points per game in UNC’s run to the Sweet 16. All things considered, Kelly’s 23-point showing in a loss to eventual national champion South Carolina may have been her finest performance in a Tar Heel uniform. The Tar Heels will need the Deja Kelly of last March to show up against the Red Storm.

What are the odds? Currently, UNC is a 5.5-point favorite over the Red Storm. The Tar Heels have won their last three NCAA Tournament games when they are the higher-seeded team.

For more information on how to watch Saturday’s game, click here.

 

Featured image via Associated Press/Paul Sancya

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