No. 3 seed UNC will face a familiar opponent in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16 Friday afternoon: No. 2 seed Duke, which defeated No. 15 Lehigh and No. 10 Oregon to reach the regional semifinals. The Blue Devils are 28-7 overall this season and finished 14-4 in ACC play.
Here’s a quick breakdown of Duke:
Head coach: Kara Lawson. The Duke job is Lawson’s first major head coaching role. She put together a decorated career as a player, starring for four years at Tennessee under head coach Pat Summitt before playing 12 years in the WNBA. Lawson won the 2005 WNBA title with the Sacramento Monarchs and was named an All-Star in 2007. Following her retirement and prior to her arrival at Duke, Lawson spent a season as an assistant coach for the NBA’s Boston Celtics. In five seasons in Durham, Lawson has compiled a 96-40 overall record and reached back-to-back Sweet 16s.
What’s the history? Duke archives have the all-time series record at 56-54 in favor of UNC. In more recent meetings, UNC is 6-3 against Duke since Lawson took over, but the Blue Devils have won three of the last five contests. The home teams have won each of the last four games, and Duke won the only neutral-court meeting in the 2023 ACC Tournament quarterfinals.
Player to watch: Toby Fournier. A six-foot-two forward from Canada, Fournier was named the ACC’s Rookie of the Year after leading the Blue Devils with 13.4 points per game. Even more impressive? Fournier has done all that while coming off the bench all season. She also averages 5.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocked shots per game, both second on the team. Fournier takes nearly double the free-throw attempts of her next closest teammate and leads Duke in field-goal percentage at 53.2. To measure Fournier’s impact, simply look at her two games against UNC this season: in the first, she didn’t make a shot from the floor and finished with two points in a 53-46 overtime loss. In the second, she posted a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double and Duke won 68-53. At her best, she’s a matchup problem for any team in the country. But Fournier’s availability could be in question, as she missed Duke’s second-round win against Oregon due to an illness.
Duke’s Toby Fournier leads the Blue Devils in scoring despite coming off the bench all season. (Image via Duke Athletics)
Stats to watch: Much like West Virginia, Duke is reliant on a suffocating defense. The Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the country at denying three-point opportunities: they allow less than five makes per game, which ranks in the Top 5 in Division 1. Though the Tar Heels often look to sharpshooter Lexi Donarski for critical threes, they don’t exactly live and die by their outside shooting. In fact, UNC is 4-0 this season when it makes three or fewer threes in a game – including its second-round win against West Virginia and its overtime win against Duke in January.
Duke’s defense is also among the best in the country in forcing turnovers: more than 20 per game, which ranks 20th in Division 1. In that regard, UNC’s game against the Mountaineers Monday night is an excellent prelude for Friday’s showdown with the Blue Devils: West Virginia’s defense ranks fifth in the country in turnovers forced per game. UNC committed 17 turnovers Monday night but was able to limit the damage – West Virginia only scored 11 points off those turnovers. It was a different story in UNC’s loss at Duke in February: the Blue Devils scored 25 points off of 20 Tar Heel turnovers, whereas UNC only forced eight Duke turnovers. And in the first meeting, the teams combined for 47 turnovers in 45 minutes: 26 by UNC and 21 by Duke. Play loose with the basketball at your own risk.
In 85 minutes of game time against the Blue Devils this season, UNC has managed only 17 assists. The Tar Heels aren’t exactly one of the top assisting teams in the country (their 14.1 assists per game rank slightly above average), but their performances against Duke have still left much to be desired. The Blue Devils’ length on the wings and in the post (three starters stand at least six feet tall, while Fournier stands at six-foot-two) can clog up passing lanes, making entry feeds to forward Maria Gakdeng that much more difficult. In two games against Duke this season, Gakdeng is averaging just six points per game, well below her season average of 11.1.
Bet the under: UNC and Duke have a history of rock fights. In fact, neither team has scored 70 points in this game since 2022. Of the seven meetings since then, two have seen both teams fail to reach the 50-point plateau (a 45-41 UNC win in Durham in the 2022-23 regular-season finale and a 44-40 Duke win at the ACC Tournament the following week). The only game among that group of seven to feature both teams scoring at least 60 points had to go to overtime: a 68-60 win for the Blue Devils in Durham on February 11, 2024. It’s about what you’d expect from the two top scoring defenses in the ACC this season – in fact, Duke has led the ACC in scoring defense for three straight seasons. If you’re looking for aesthetically pleasing basketball, you may have to look elsewhere.
None of UNC and Duke’s recent meetings in women’s basketball could be called artistic. In the teams’ first meeting this season, they combined for 47 turnovers in 45 minutes. (Image via UNC Athletic Communications/Jeffrey A. Camarati)
Guess who’s back? It’s no secret that the Tar Heels were shorthanded when they visited Cameron Indoor Stadium earlier this season. Starters Alyssa Ustby and Reniya Kelly both sat as UNC lost by 15 on Duke’s Senior Night. When both Kelly and Ustby play, the Tar Heels are 2-1 against the Blue Devils. Since returning from the injury which sidelined her, Ustby has been up to her old tricks, averaging 12 points and 9.6 rebounds across five games. She scored 21 points in the second-round win against West Virginia. A member of the ACC’s All-Defensive team, Ustby could be key in slowing down Fournier.
Rock solid: Duke has the rare distinction of having used the same starting five for each of its 35 games this season. Ashlon Jackson, Reigan Richardson (who torched the Tar Heels for 23 points on her Senior Night in Durham), Taina Mair, Jadyn Donovan and Delaney Thomas are as reliable as they come, all playing at least 21 minutes and scoring at least five points per game. On the bench sits Oluchi Okananwa, who finished second in ACC Sixth Player of the Year voting, and the freshman star Fournier. Add in reserve contributions from Jordan Wood and Vanessa de Jesus – each of whom average more than 12 minutes per game – and Duke has one of the deepest and most talented rotations in the country.
What are the odds? As of Thursday, UNC is a 5.5-point underdog in the game. The Tar Heels were also underdogs in their win against West Virginia.
For more information on how to watch Friday’s game, click here.
Featured image via Associated Press/Chris Seward
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