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All bets are off in the NCAA Baseball Tournament.
As it stands right now, the Diamond Heels aren’t projected to be one of 16 national seeds in the 64-team field. But being a highly-ranked team dreaming of Omaha isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. After all, the No. 1 overall seed in the field has lifted the trophy only one time since… ever.
In the last two seasons, the No. 1 overall seed hasn’t even made it to Omaha. In each case, SEC powerhouses fell on home soil to ACC underdogs in the Super Regionals: NC State toppled Arkansas in 2021 on its way to the College World Series, and Notre Dame took down Tennessee in 2022 to the delight of nearly every other fan base around the country.
Last season also saw Ole Miss, a No. 3 seed in its four-team region and the “last team in” win its first-ever national championship. You’d think the tournament’s double-elimination format would lead to more chalkiness, but it’s precisely the opposite. Between 2004 and 2016, 11 of the 13 national champions were not given a top-8 seed, and three of those teams were seeded No. 3 or worse in their own region. Fresno State made history in 2008 when it became the first and only No. 4 seed to win the championship. That’s like if a No. 13 seed or worse won March Madness.
Just another year in Omaha.
Carolina has its own experiences with summer upsets. The 2007 Tar Heels were a No. 1 seed and made it to the championship series, but got smoked in two games by unseeded Oregon State. The 2013 team was the best in school history, earning the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed. But a loss to unseeded NC State in the first game in Omaha and another to unseeded UCLA in the semifinals sent Carolina home empty-handed.
There are other teams that didn’t even make the trip out west: the 2022 and 2019 squads each hosted Super Regionals but lost. The 2017 team fared even worse. The Tar Heels were the No. 2 overall seed but lost to Davidson — Davidson! — twice in Chapel Hill for a stunning early exit.
Of course, the Diamond Heels have been on the good side of some upsets, too. The 2006 team visited No. 4 overall seed Alabama in the Super Regionals and left winners after a two-game sweep of the Tide, capped off by Chad Flack’s legendary walk-off homer in Game 2. The Tar Heels then defeated No. 1 overall seed Clemson in Omaha on their way to the championship series.
So, seeding really doesn’t matter in this tournament. If you’re hot, you’re hot. If you’re not, prepare for a long and winding road back home.
Featured image via The News & Observer/Robert Willett
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