Carolina at Virginia Tech is basically an NCAA tournament play-in game.
The Tar Heels’ visit to boisterous, 10,000-seat Cassell Coliseum Saturday afternoon was already a huge game for them. Now, it is even bigger for several reasons, the most important of which is they have to win to stay on the NCAA bubble.
It also has become a Quad 1 game since the Hokies rallied from a 2-7 start in the ACC with six straight wins and now sit at No. 36 in the NCAA NET Rankings that will determine the 68-team field on Sunday, March 13. After the disastrous loss to 11-16 Pitt in the Smith Center, Carolina plunged eight spots in the NET from 37 to 45.
With that Quad 4 loss, it is hard to imagine a reasonable path for the Tar Heels without winning in either Blacksburg or at Duke March 6, and they are solid underdogs in both games. There could still be a crucial win in the ACC tournament, which carries less weight on a neutral court.
Since the NCAA turned to the NET analytics systems a few years ago, no team without a Quad 1 win has made the field. Carolina seemed like a candidate to break that precedent before losing badly to the Panthers. And there are still three other games that could be dangerous for the team that was badly outshot and out-muscled by an underdog at home.
Louisville is 5-10 in the ACC and 11-14. Buoyed by what Pitt did, the equally rugged Cardinals come here Monday with a chip on their shoulder after the wild loss at the Yum! Center on a controversial technical foul call at the end of overtime. And they will have 6-10 center Malik Williams, who was suspended for the first game.
Going to N.C. State is never a picnic, even though the Wolfpack is in 14th place in the ACC at 4-12. UNC blew out its in-state rival in the first game at the Dean Dome. And Syracuse, the opponent for Leaky Black’s Senior Night on February 28, will test Carolina’s hot-and-cold outside shooters with its assorted 2-3 zones.
The positive trend just 48 hours ago has made a sharp turn the other way. The Hokies just beat archrival Virginia at home last Monday, and they treat Carolina with equal contempt. Coach Mike Young upset the Heels when he was at Wofford and beat UNC two years ago in double overtime in their last visit to The Cassell. This one is far bigger.
Win or lose, how Hubert Davis’ team responds to the Pitt loss will be an important theme of the 4 p.m. game on ESPN2.
Photo via Todd Melet.
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