By the chalk, Virginia Tech is the biggest remaining game for Carolina.

Six teams could still win or tie for first place in the tepid ACC, but going by the favorites, the Tar Heels have one game that means the most. Assuming they can take care of Pitt Wednesday night, their trip to Blacksburg Saturday is the one that could make their regular season hopes.

Duke and Notre Dame lead the current standings at 11-3.

The Blue Devils will be favored to win their remaining six games: home against Wake Forest, home against Florida State, at Virginia, at Syracuse, at Pitt and home against UNC. Sure, the Dukies lost at home to Virginia, but do you really see them not getting even in Charlottesville? While the Syracuse zone could give them problems at the Carrier Dome, the Orange have been up and down all season.

Notre Dame has the easiest schedule down the stretch – with the game at Wake Forest the only one where the Irish will be underdogs. So, let’s say they wind up 16-4.

Miami and UNC are a full game behind the league leaders with 10-4 records, and the Hurricanes could lose at home to Virginia and Virginia Tech and maybe even at Syracuse. They likely have to win at least three of their remaining games to finish in the top four.

The Tar Heels have two other games they should win besides Pitt: Louisville and at N.C. State. Playing Syracuse is always tough for them, and the only way they beat Duke is by shooting the lights out at Cameron like they figuratively and literally shot them out at home against FSU.

So, looking ahead to Saturday’s game is easy to do. Beating the Hokies up there could get them one of the four double byes in the ACC tournament and also lock up an NCAA spot since it would be a Quad 1 win. In the latest NET rankings, UNC is No. 38, second best in the ACC. Va Tech is next at 39.

To make a long story short, Carolina probably has to go 5-1 in its last six games to make the top four in the ACC and get into the Big Dance early, which would be a major accomplishment considering how the season has gone on and off the court with inconsistency and personnel losses.

Of course, the tournament in Brooklyn could also resurrect or kill some of the borderline teams’ chances. The ACC champion gets an automatic NCAA bid, but unexpected wins or losses in the earlier rounds could shake things up even more.

 

Photo via AP Photo/Gerry Broome.

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