Who will win the irresistible force paradox this weekend?
From physics to Batman movies, the question is brought up often between an immovable object versus an irresistible force. So let’s apply it to Notre Dame-UNC Saturday, a battle between massive brands that are both unranked in college football.
The Fighting Irish come to Kenan Stadium for a 3:30 kickoff that is still big enough to be nationally televised by ABC. Notre Dame was ranked No. 5 in preseason but dropped out of the polls after losing at Ohio State and to Marshall at home, followed by a narrow win over Cal in South Bend.
The 3-0 Tar Heels were penalized by suffering a similar fate a year ago, opening the season ranked No. 10 and falling way, way down and out by going 6-7 after a bowl loss. In the most recent rankings, Notre Dame received zero votes, UNC got 72. So, let’s see if we can make sense of a prediction by using team statistics.
The supposed irresistible force is Notre Dame, although its defense is only the 59th best in the country, No. 95 against the run but 33rd in pass defense. Indeed, that may make the Irish good enough to contain Carolina’s wide-open offense and win. But not so fast.
The Heels are currently No. 5 in total offense, No. 14 in rushing and No. 21 in passing, one of the best-balanced attacks in the country as also the fifth-highest scoring team in the FBS.
You could also say the inverse of each category tells another story. Carolina’s defense is rated 123rd overall, a product of being No. 111 against the rush and 112 against the pass.
Except that the Fighting Irish offense has been near anemic in their first three games, 102nd in rushing and 107th in passing to have only the 114th best offense in the nation.
So, if you take the averages on each side of the ball, the Tar Heels are a plus-91 on offense versus Notre Dame’s plus-53 on defense. That makes Carolina more of an irresistible force than Notre Dame in an immovable object.
Oddsmakers seem to agree, installing the home team as a 1.5 favorite to win perhaps the biggest game two unranked national brands have ever played.
Featured image via Associated Press/Carlos Osorio
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