I’ve got a hunch about the Carolina at Duke football game.

The Tar Heels are an 11-point underdog at Wallace Wade Stadium Saturday. Statistically, the teams are pretty even and pretty average. For example:

Neither team has a single player listed in the top five in any ACC offensive category. In some categories, like touchdowns scored, you have to go as far down as No. 13 to find a Blue Devil and No. 34 to find a Tar Heel. Did you know that Nathan Elliott is the seventh-best passer in the ACC, and Duke’s Daniel Jones is No. 8?

Would you believe that the Blue Devils have rushed for 1474 yards this season and given up 1805 on the ground? And that Carolina’s three running backs – Antonio Williams, Michael Carter and Jordon Brown – are way better by the numbers than Duke’s running backs?

Yes, the records are disparate. Duke is 6-3 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. Carolina is 1-7 and 1-5 in the league. But let’s dive a little deeper.

The Blue Devils won at Northwestern, Baylor and Georgia Tech – three games they wouldn’t win today if there was a rematch. And they won at Miami in a monsoon, which hurt the Hurricanes far more than Duke.  The Tar Heels had two games won – against Virginia Tech and at Syracuse – and blew them at the end of regulation. And they were tied with Georgia Tech and had the ball late in the fourth quarter, but turned it over.

So, factor all that in for Saturday; both are about .500 football teams.

Now, let’s take the intangibles. They have said for a hundred years to throw the record book out the window when these two teams play. Duke has won two straight in the series after two decades of domination by the Tar Heels, who haven’t rung the victory bell since 2015.

The Blue Devils have a bowl bid wrapped up. The Tar Heels still have their two most important games left, their 2018 bowls, versus Duke and N.C. State. And having rivalry games at the end of a season make a difference.

Let’s go back 50 years. Duke had all-star quarterback Leo Hart and was favored over UNC, which had converted safety Gayle Bomar at quarterback and was 2-7 for the season. Carolina won 25-14.

That’s my hunch for Saturday.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Related Stories
‹
Chansky's Notebook: DEE-Fense (Clap, Clap)!
It’s the D, not the O, most responsible for Carolina’s fast start. Before the season I asked Lee Pace, who is the best writer of Tar Heel sports around, how he thought Mack Brown’s first team of his second tenure would do. Pace predicted Carolina would be 4-0 going into the Clemson game because a […]
Chansky's Notebook: Something to Show
Saturday is the first big test of the Mack Brown magic. No other coach could have shaken Carolina football out of the apathy that had finally overcome the program in Larry Fedora’s last two losing seasons. The alumni and fan base had moved on from anger to the annual excitement of another basketball season. Kenan had […]
Chansky's Notebook: And Did I Mention…
It was almost as if the Tar Heels knew that Duke lost. Those who could follow both the Duke-Virginia Tech and Syracuse-Carolina games saw the Blue Devils’ 77-72 loss to the Hokies end at almost the exact time the Tar Heels were tipping off against the Orange. Of course, it didn’t happen this way, but I could […]
Chansky's Notebook: Nine Common Opponents
It’s Duke-Carolina week, so let’s start with common opponents. We’ll be hearing lots of statistics and metrics this week as the Tar Heels and Blue Devils tangle in the first of two contests this Wednesday night in Durham. Nine common opponents to date is one of them, and the results are fairly surprising. Duke has […]
Chansky's Notebook: Fast Start, Ugly Finish
The shootout in Durham turned pop-gun match in the second half. How frustrating was Carolina’s loss to Duke Saturday at revamped Wallace Wade Stadium? Thanks to millions pumped into David Cutcliffe’s program and his recruitment of better players than they have had in past decades, the Blue Devils have a program worthy of the Blue […]
Chansky's Notebook: A Thousand Cuts
Carolina may be an average football team, but also an unlucky one. No team should have to go through what the Tar Heels have the last two seasons. The injuries in 2017 started early and pretty much decimated the squad that finished 3-9. This fall it has been more like death by a thousand cuts. […]
Chansky's Notebook: Mack's The Story
If God is a Tar Heel, he will let us play football in the fall. The news about Mack Brown won’t go away, or even subside. His current recruiting class has climbed to 14 in number and No. 3 in the country, and there are almost a dozen uncommitted prospects who are among the best […]
Chansky's Notebook: All-Around Sorry
What do I feel sorry about over that win that got away? I feel sorry for those fans, many of whom might have thought their team had no chance to beat Duke, but didn’t sell their tickets and yelled their guts out at the Dean Dome, trying to pull Carolina through. I feel sorry for […]
Chansky's Notebook: More and Better!
Some New Year’s resolution for Carolina teams and coaches. As we welcome the new year and new decade, here is what I wish for in the Carolina athletic orbit. A successful growth spurt for the struggling Tar Heel basketball team, which has been caught short with its usual array of talented players and been burdened […]
Chansky's Notebook: An Attractive Pick
Is the Sam Howell news helping Carolina’s bowl prospects? This week, every year, it is always fun to read the bowl predictions by all the news outlets. Literally they change every day for various reasons. One of those reasons may be the continued ascension of Carolina freshman quarterback Sam Howell, who has received the following […]
›