What Duke has at stake on Senior Night in the Dean Dome.

With Grayson Allen hobbling on a bad ankle and Amile Jefferson playing on a tender foot, Mike Krzyzewski’s program has let it leak out that the Blue Devils are now playing for March. While that usually means the ACC and NCAA tournaments, March starts Saturday night in the Blue Blood rematch at the Smith Center.
Duke can no longer win the ACC after being an almost unanimous preseason pick to do so, but winning and losing against the Tar Heels means plenty in seeding for the two post-season tourneys. And the farther the Blue Devils go in Brooklyn, the higher their seed when the Big Dance starts the next weekend.

A second win over the Heels will have a twofold effect for Duke. One, finishing third or fourth in the ACC and getting the double-bye to Thursday, and not having to win four games for the championship, critical for the banged up Blue Devils. It would also be the best quality win of their season and catapult them to a No. 3 seed in the NCAA and possibly a No. 2 if they won the ACC tourney.

But a loss to the favored Heels could drop Duke all the way to the 6 or 7 seed after all the ACC tie-breakers are figured out. That would mean playing a night game on Wednesday and again on Thursday, and Coach K’s chances of winning his first ACC tournament championship since 2011 would be severely compromised.

How Duke wins is by the same formula that beat Carolina in Cameron Indoor almost a month ago. Make a ton of three-pointers –the Devils drained 13 in the first game compared to 4 for UNC – and hold their own again on the backboards, where they actually grabbed one more rebound than the Tar Heels, who were playing without Isaiah Hicks in that game. Carolina is the healthier team this time around, so the chances of all that aligning are not great.

But Duke always plays well over here, having won five out of the last seven trips since Tyler Hansbrough graduated. Twice the Tar Heels gave the game away on the last possession. The Blue Devils must stay close if they’re to steal another one: Friday: UNC’s chances.

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