To make the Quad Squad, Carolina can’t lose to anyone but Duke.
Ironically, the Tar Heels may not have to beat the Blue Devils at home or away to sneak into the backdoor of the NCAA tournament. Right now, they are on the bubble with not a very secure grip.
The old RPI has turned into the complicated NET Rankings, which measures every college basketball team’s record, who they beat, who they lost to and where those games were played. For example, to earn a valuable Quad 1 win, a team has to defeat a Quad 1 opponent at home, or on a neutral court or on the road for the most value.
Carolina’s NET Ranking is 46, but the record is more telling.
Last year, not a single team lacking a Quad 1 win was invited to the Big Dance. Only two teams that beat one or two Quad 1s or 2s made it. UNC has only a Quad 2 win at home over Michigan and missed Quad 1 chances against Purdue, Tennessee and Kentucky on neutral courts; the blowouts at Miami and Wake Forest obviously didn’t help.
Right now, the unusually weak ACC is cannibalizing itself since most conference wins lack value. Clemson was a bounce away from a huge Quad 1 win at Duke Tuesday but wasn’t hurt by a “close loss.”
So, Carolina has two cracks at the top ten Blue Devils and winning either (or both) would likely guarantee an NCAA bid. Only the home game against FSU on February 12 and the visit to Virginia Tech a week later loom as Quad 1 or 2 opportunities that could boost the Tar Heels’ chances.
In the past, when up to eight ACC teams were headed for the postseason, conference games meant much more.
While the Heels can still play their way off the bubble by racking up wins, losing any other conference game like the one Saturday against N.C. State and Tuesday night at Louisville could prove deadly. At 14-6, they have to win at least eight more games and pick up at least a Quad 1 win.
Of course, there is still the ACC tournament, which awards its champion an automatic NCAA bid. As it stands, most of the members will be looking to put on that Cinderella slipper, and if Duke were to get knocked off early the other 14 teams would all have a chance to live that dream.
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Let’s be honest….tussling with quad 3s is about where we are at…
What’s more telling about Net is we are as high as we are ……
Oh wait..thats how Duke has held such high Net Rankings for years…Cupcakes at home