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The Tar Heels need to defend themselves and the ACC.
As the basketball world debates UNC’s status as the last team picked for the NCAA tournament and only fourth from the ACC, Carolina has a chance to right some wrongs that created the furor over its inclusion in the Big Dance.
San Diego State is a Quad 2 team (with a NET ranking of 52). On a neutral court like Dayton, a Quad 1 opponent must be in the top 50. The Heels are ranked 36 and statistically the 15th best team in the country since February 11. They have already been installed as a 3.5-point favorite over the Aztecs.
It will be Carolina’s improving defense against SDS’s offense that is among the least efficient in college basketball. Conversely, the Tar Heels need to continue their offense and rebounding over the last six weeks to outfox the Aztecs, whose acclaimed Brian Dutcher is a two-time Mountain West Coach of the Year.
Dutcher has a bigger team, although 7-foot and conference Freshman/ Defensive Player of the Year Magoon Gwath is returning after being sidelined since late February. That will be somewhat the same challenge Carolina faced with Duke’s Khaman Maluach and his third-string 6-foot-11 backup. SDS’s 6-foot-10 Jared Coleman-Jones is a regular averaging 7 points and 5 rebounds, similar stats to Gwath.
The Heels have to speed up the Aztecs, whose patient offense is controlled by leading scorers Nick Boyd (36% from beyond the arc) and Miles Byrd (31%) and do not shoot the ball as well as Carolina from the floor, the three-point line or foul line. They also don’t rebound as well but like to play a game with fewer possessions and thus less chances off the glass.
But for two teams who spent most of the season on the NCAA bubble, this will be a game of gratitude and pride for making the tournament, wanting to prove they belong and advance to the full field of 64 at the South Regional in Milwaukee.
The Tar Heels received a very good draw for their first time in the First Four play-in round. If they beat San Diego State, as favored, they have two days off to practice and prepare for Ole Miss, one of 14 SEC teams in the field. The Rebels are 22-11 with a NET ranking of 28 after tying for sixth in the conference with Kentucky and Missouri. Their leading scorer is Virginia Tech transfer guard Sean Pedulla, one of six Rebs to average in double figures. Pedulla takes the most three-pointers on the team and hits 39 percent of them.
And if UNC can win two games, next up will be third-ranked Iowa State in a second-round game on Sunday. The Cyclones, No. 9 in the NET, are no bigger than Carolina and led by senior guard Curtis Jones — but will be without injured second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert.
So, it’s an opportunity for the Tar Heels.
Featured image by Todd Melet/Chapel Hill Media Group.
Art Chansky is a veteran journalist who has written ten books, including best-sellers “Game Changers,” “Blue Bloods,” and “The Dean’s List.” He has contributed to WCHL for decades, having made his first appearance as a student in 1971. His “Sports Notebook” commentary airs daily on the 97.9 The Hill WCHL and his “Art’s Angle” opinion column runs weekly on Chapelboro.Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our newsletter.
UNC only needs to defend UNC. I’ll never forget back in the early 70’s on Dean Smith’s weekly TV show with a young Woody Durham. Woody was bragging to DES that the ACC had 4 or 5 teams in the Top 10 national poll and asked Coach Smith to comment on the pride he must have in the conference. Smith replied politely but firmly that his “only concern was Carolina.” Carolina needs to worry about Carolina with the oldest cliche in athletics. One game at a time.
I believe 3.5 slightly underestimated the margin.