The Tar Heel “Circle of Life”

The sun rises bright and high each morning over the African desert, much the same as it should hang over our own Dean E. Smith Center this winter. As King Mufasa once ruled over all of the animals while nurturing his son, Simba, so Coach Roy Williams will resume his quest to once again rule the ACC Kingdom by preaching the UNC Point Guard “circle of life” to his own Simba: point guard extraordinaire Marcus Paige. The question lies in whether or not Simba can get a little help from his friends this year, with the departures of James Michael McAdoo and Leslie McDonald.

It may be the easy conclusion to say that it all starts and ends with number five for the Heels, but that kind of pressure is unwarranted for Marcus Paige. Recent history under Roy Williams and his fast-breaking offensive style has proven time and again that yes, he needs a star up-tempo point man, but that player, whether it be Raymond Felton in 2005 or Ty Lawson in 2009, is not going to win a conference or national title alone.

In order for Paige to avoid passing out in the desert like Simba, and for him to reach the lofty goals set out for the team this year, he’ll need some help from his Timon and Pumbaa. J.P. Tokoto and Kennedy Meeks will each need to take a big leap forward to ease some of the burden on their leader. If Paige is going to take on the Felton/Lawson role in Williams’ scheme, Tokoto and Meeks should aim to fill roles previously filled with names like Rashad McCants and Danny Green or Sean May and Tyler Hansbrough. Tokoto has the size and athleticism to be an NBA wing player, but is still lacking confidence and consistency with his outside jumper. Meeks also looks to be a prototypical pro-level stretch power forward. With the 6’9” 270 pound body and strength he possesses, he should increase his rebounding production this season, but it’s his offensive potential, and his three-point range, that gets scouts talking about what this kid could grow up to be. The exact statistical production won’t necessarily be replicated simply because each season’s team is different; but it seems that for Roy Williams, his title teams have adhered to a distinct blueprint.

Roy’s national title teams had a few clear factors in common. Point Guards Felton and Lawson had each spent their first two years on campus proving their talents while failing to meet tournament expectations. Each of them was also surrounded by proven and talented players all over the floor, just as experienced. Seniors even earned significant playing time with those squads, which seems to be becoming rarer by the year in college basketball. By the time of each point guard’s junior year, their respective teams were both talented and experienced enough that opponents essentially had to pick their poison every time they played the Heels; production could come from anywhere on any given night. There was just that much talent and consistency on the court.

Fast forward to this year’s bunch, and what we have is one element that lines up and most others that don’t quite fit. We have Paige, the talented junior point guard, ready to make the leap and seize control of his kingdom. However, as talented as we know Tokoto, Meeks, and Brice Johnson can be, they have yet to demonstrate consistency throughout a full season. Incoming high school McDonalds All-Americans Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson will also play key roles on the wing. Jackson, a talented and rangy 6’8” offensive player from Texas, and Pinson, an athletic 6’6” small forward hailing from nearby High Point, are without a doubt high class talents. Talent does not always replace age and experience, which is the main ingredient this group will lack.

As the season progresses the key for the Tar Heels’ run at the ACC and potentially national crowns will rest with Mufasa’s development of his cubs. Coach Williams will teach and Simba will lead. Whether or not expectations are met will likely be determined by how well the rest of the pack learns and develops together.

Meanwhile, across the triangle in Durham, Mufasa’s brother Scar seems to have grown jealous of Simba’s potential claim to the throne. Coach Mike Krzyzewski has added his own uber-talented protégé this offseason in center Jahlil Okafor from Chicago, and the Blue Devils appear to be reloading.

Although Louisville and Virginia may have other plans, the ACC crown looks like it could easily end up mirroring a couple of alpha-male lions dueling it out in the desert (or on Tobacco Road) at the very end. It would only be right to have it all come down to Simba versus Scar, March 7^th inside the Dean Dome. We’ll all hope for our sake that it plays out just like the movie, with Simba on top looking down at his kingdom (and returning for a senior season).