What we’re thinking
What We’re Thinking: Reflecting on the 2024 Election
Tom looks back on the 2024 election, including polling accuracy (high) and what the Democrats did wrong (not as much as you’d think).
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What We’re Thinking: Election Eve 2024
It’s Election Day Eve – and we still have no idea who’s going to win the presidential election. What can we glean from early-voting results?
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What We’re Thinking: 2016 In Reverse?
This week, Tom discusses early-voting turnout so far in North Carolina – and polling numbers that suggest a possible reversal of 2016.
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What We’re Thinking: Now, It’s All About Turnout
Tom says the presidential race is so close that polls can’t tell us who’s really leading: it’s all going to come down to who shows up to vote.
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What We’re Thinking: Mark Robinson and the Republican Ticket
What’s the likely impact of CNN’s report on Mark Robinson? Tom says not much in the presidential race, but downballot races may be different.
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What We’re Thinking: On Debate Eve, Trump May Have An Edge
On the day before the presidential debate, Tom and Aaron discuss private surveys showing Donald Trump with a slight edge on Kamala Harris.
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What We’re Thinking: Kamala’s Trending, But the Race Is Tight
Tom and Aaron discuss recent polling that shows Kamala Harris running (on average) one point ahead of Joe Biden in 2020.
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What We’re Thinking: Kamala Rising? Not As Much As You Might Think
Tom discusses the presidential race with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee: better than it was for Democrats, but still a toss-up.
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What We’re Thinking: Advantage Kamala?
Joe Biden is out and Kamala Harris is in as the Democratic presidential nominee – but how much of an impact will that have?
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What We’re Thinking: After Everything, Still No Change
Tom and Aaron reflect on an odd but consistent phenomenon: no matter what happens in this presidential election, the polls barely budge.
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