Clearly, Carolina has to run the ball better to beat Virginia.
It is a subtle difference but a significant one for the Tar Heels moving forward. Their rushing threat with future pros Michael Carter and Javonte Williams in 2020 changed defenses enough to make Sam Howell even more dangerous throwing the ball.
It’s early, but so far this season the statistics bear that out.
Carolina averaged almost 6 yards per running play last year; after two games, the average is 5 yards per carry. That translates into fewer total offense yards per play (7.2) than in 2020 (7.6) and fewer total yards per game (480) so far than last year (537).
When defenses try to prove you can run the ball, they don’t have to crowd the box as much and make it harder for receivers to get separation in the secondary. And while Josh Down is a terror across the field, the Tar Heels don’t have anyone who stretches it yet.
Howell is completing passes for an average of 9.59 yards in games as a junior. As a sophomore he picked up more than 10 yards per completion. The total passing yards are about the same because he is throwing the ball a little bit more, but his completion rate is 63 percent, down from 68 percent.
Mack Brown used to say hyperbolically, “If you can’t run the ball, you have no chance.” He tempers that now by saying, “It’s hard to win if you are one-dimensional.”
Making matters more difficult is that Carolina’s running backs and receivers are younger and, so far, not as good as they have been the last two years. Howell is helping that equation by being stronger, slimmer and faster as a runner, and he is becoming the Tar Heel’s No. 1 threat toting the pigskin.
Praise the Lord, he doesn’t get hurt!
Virginia has a veteran roster littered with red-shirt upperclassmen and COVID super seniors. The 2-0 Cavs also have a savvy coaching staff led by the creative Bronco Mendenhall.
“On third and long,” Brown said, “everyone has a scheme to get a stop or a turnover. The key is getting more yardage on first down to stay away from that.”
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