The Myth of Chapel Hill’s Rapid and Extraordinary Growth
A perspective from John Rees and Stephen Whitlow
A common refrain heard in Chapel Hill is that we are growing far too much and far too fast. It is said so frequently and with such conviction that many of our residents have come to accept it as gospel. But the facts tell a vastly different story.
According to the recently released 2020 US Census data, Chapel Hill now has a population of 61,960, an increase of 4,727 or about 8.3 percent over the Town’s 2010 population. This modest increase represents the slowest decade of growth in Chapel Hill in over one hundred years — between 1900 and 1910 Chapel Hill grew by only 4.5 percent. To put this in further perspective, between 1910 and 2020, there was no decade in which growth was less than 17.5 percent (between 2000 and 2010), more than double the rate of increase for the past decade.
So, a review of the data tells us that the only thing that was extraordinary about the last decade’s growth was how slow it was. More remarkable is how little Chapel Hill has grown despite being in one of the country’s best job markets and fastest growing areas; Chatham, Durham, and Wake Counties all saw population growth of at least 20 percent from 2010 to 2020.
That said, while Chapel Hill is not growing rapidly, it is growing differently. Whereas in the past, the Town grew by adding single family homes and townhouses, often on annexed land, it is now growing largely, but not exclusively, by adding multi-family, multi-story buildings. These buildings are being added exclusively along our designated transit corridors, so as not to intrude upon our single-family neighborhoods and to reduce traffic by encouraging the use of our excellent transit system. Because of the nature and novelty of these buildings and their location along busy roads, the modest increase in housing units in Chapel Hill is very visible to many of our residents, contributing to the myth of Chapel Hill’s rapid growth.
The creation of our rural buffer in the late 1980s coupled with the restrictions placed on land annexations by the NCGA in the last decade has meant that Chapel Hill, like many other maturing towns, has had to grow up rather than out. We are seeing the effects of this now. The challenges and costs of building multi-family housing, along with the decreasing availability of buildable land, make it likely that the new normal for the Town will be slower growth accommodated in larger buildings along transit corridors. And although our growth is slower than in the past, the current rate still requires construction of additional market-rate and affordable housing units to prevent housing prices from continuing to rise and pricing out low-to-moderate-income households. On average, we’re seeing between 450 and 500 new residents per year. After allowing from natural growth (i.e., births), we need about 200 units new dwelling units per year, on average, to accommodate this modest growth.
The challenge and opportunity for Chapel Hill will be to ensure that it happens in ways that provide benefits to our residents in the form of green spaces, affordable housing, places for empty nesters and younger folks starting their careers, and places for community gatherings. It won’t be easy, but experience shows us that it can be done.
Supporting data (source, US Census) Chapel Hill Historical population
Chapel Hill Historical population
Census Pop. %
1880 831 —
1890 1,017 22.4%
1900 1,099 8.1%
1910 1,149 4.5%
1920 1,483 29.1%
1930 2,699 82.0%
1940 3,654 35.4%
1950 9,177 151.1%
1960 12,573 37.0%
1970 26,199 108.4%
1980 32,421 23.7%
1990 38,719 19.4%
2000 48,715 25.8%
2010 57,233 17.5%
2020 61,960 8.3%
U.S. Decennial Census[15]
“Viewpoints” is a place on Chapelboro where local people are encouraged to share their unique perspectives on issues affecting our community. If you’d like to contribute a column on an issue you’re concerned about, interesting happenings around town, reflections on local life — or anything else — send a submission to viewpoints@wchl.com
Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees. You can support local journalism and our mission to serve the community. Contribute today – every single dollar matters.
Thanks for this article.
You are probably correct about the number of residents if you are not counting the large number of people renting all the new “luxury” apartments
The 2020 census very likely undercounted by a large number. The census workers going around my CH neighborhood in 2020 complained that many didn’t open their doors. Who would in a pandemic ? And I am sure very few took the time to go online and fill out the census there. Based on this, I bet CH’s censis number is by at least 10,000 off. CH continues to grow rapidly, with cheap apartment complexes and nondescript subdivisions being built near the popular schools, with no investment in infrastructure and roads. Power outages abound during hurricanes, frequent flooding, clogged roads, and horrible cooky cutter architecture.
CH is governed by the realtors, for the developers. The government has no planning and architectural vision for the intellectual center of our state.
This was a noteworthy editorial. As a former long-time Chapel Hill/Carrboro/Orange County resident and WCHL listener/commentator, now an occasional visitor, I’m amazed at the emergence of the “high-rise row” apartment and condo buildings along Fordham Boulevard and downtown over the last few years. Estes Drive seems next. I am surprised this “growth” is technically the lowest in the previous 110 years. The decade-to-decade growth stats are compelling, especially the population surge after World War II, when many returning vets began or completed their education at UNC-CH. The current necessity to grow up — not out, was inevitable due to the rural buffer and legal constraints. As commenter “danfergjr” posted, the actual population growth may be higher due to large number of rental residents, some of whom may not have been enumerated accurately by the shortened 2020 census. An analysis of Carrboro growth would be equally interesting. Richard Taylor, Ocracoke.
In a recent Viewpoint, John Rees and Stephen Whitlow cited data from the 2020 US Census to show that Chapel Hill is “seeing between 450 and 500 new residents per year. After allowing from natural growth (i.e., births), we need about 200 new dwelling units per year, on average, to accommodate this modest growth.” As a scientist I love seeing data used to support one’s conclusions; I just wish they had gathered more. Data from the Planning Department on development in our fair city give a different picture of recent growth. Over the last 6 years, the average number of units built per year has been ~ 290, 45% more than “needed”. Another 4201 units have been approved for construction (sufficient for 21 years of population growth at current rates.) And there’s more: another 725 units have been proposed (> 3 years of “needed” supply.) None of these counts include probable future developments in the University Place, Obey Creek and Carolina North areas.
John and Stephen are correct in concluding that our population is growing slowly, but the rate of growth in housing and the nature of that housing is out of balance with our growth in population. This lack of balance threatens the needs for “green spaces, affordable housing … and places for community gatherings” that they cite in their conclusion.