Holding Court With David Glenn: Odds Aren’t Everything

 

How Wake Forest (8-0) Is Off To Its Best Start Ever, and Why UNC (4-4) Is Favored To Beat Deacs Anyway

By Dave Glenn

Wake Forest is 8-0, ranked in the top 10 nationally, and off to the best start in program history. North Carolina is 4-4, unranked after preseason top-10 recognition, and will need to rally just to finish with a winning record.

So why are the Tar Heels a two- or three-point betting favorite? ESPN’s Football Power Index, based on analytics, gives Carolina a 55 percent chance of beating the Demon Deacons in Chapel Hill on Saturday (noon, ABC).

Such educated speculation really boils down to mainly two things: UNC is at home, where the Tar Heels tend to play much better, and the Heels’ explosive offense may be able to exploit the Deacons’ vulnerable defense, just as it did last year during a wild, 59-53 shootout victory also in Chapel Hill.

While truly brilliant on offense (43.4 ppg) and special teams (#2 nationally) under eighth-year coach Dave Clawson, who successfully rebuilt programs at Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green before taking over at Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons are inconsistent on defense (23.9 ppg). In October, they gave up 34 points to Louisville, 37 to Syracuse and 56 to Army in a three-game span.

“They’ve got basically the same team back they had last year,” UNC coach Mack Brown said. “Last year’s game was 59-53. We’ve got our hands full.”

Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman is back to lead the high-powered Deacons offense against a UNC team that yielded 39 points to Virginia, 45 to Georgia Tech, 35 to Florida State, 42 to Miami and 44 to Notre Dame.

“Sam Hartman and Sam Howell are two of the best to ever play the game,” Brown said, “and two of the best in the country.”

In the preseason, when the media picked Wake Forest to finish fifth in the Atlantic Division despite the return of 20 starters from last year’s bowl team, the even-keeled Clawson clearly felt disrespected.

“I said before the season that we had a good football team,” Clawson said. “Nobody believed me.

“I’ve stopped caring about that stuff. I really have. We focus on the things that we can control. Our players have done a good job of that. There’s no point in wasting any energy on that, because it’s not going to help us. The second you start worrying about that stuff, it’s just misplaced energy and time. We need to focus on our football players, getting them ready for the next game.”

In the 69-year history of the ACC, Wake Forest has only two conference championships in football. The first, under coach Cal Stoll, was in 1970. The second, under coach Jim Grobe, was in 2006.

The Associated Press college football poll started in 1934. Until this week, Wake Forest had never been ranked in the national top 10 of that poll, not for a single week in a period of 87 years!

As those snapshots suggest, Wake is a very, very difficult place to win big in football. It is among the smallest schools, by enrollment, in the 130-member FBS ranks. As a private university, it typically demands that its coaches sign student-athletes with significantly better academic credentials than are required by a majority of its ACC competition. It recently refurbished its gridiron facilities in impressive fashion, but it still plays in a tiny stadium by Power Five standards. There also aren’t as many championships or other football-related factors to sell on the recruiting trail, although taking five consecutive bowl trips under Clawson has helped in that regard.

If you think those complications are an exaggeration, consider this: Wake has had 13 head coaches during the ACC era, including big names such as John Mackovic and Bill Dooley, and not one of them has concluded his tenure with the Demon Deacons with a winning record. Even Grobe, who’s tied with (pre-ACC) Peahead Walker as the winningest coach in program history, finished 77-82 (.484).

At the moment, Clawson’s record with the Demon Deacons is 48-45, so there’s one more way he may be making history. Even Clawson, though, has won only 40 percent (24-36) of his ACC games.

So what’s different about the Deacons here in 2021?

Well, this may sound odd, but Wake Forest is a really old team. That was one of the Demon Deacons’ advantages in 2006, too, in part because of Grobe’s routine redshirt policy, but thanks to redshirts, transfers and the extra year of eligibility provided by COVID-related NCAA legislation, most of their best players are 22, 23, 24 or even 25 years old.

In some cases, the Deacons literally are playing men against boys.

Backup defensive tackle Sulaiman Kamara, who has started games in three straight years for the Demon Deacons, is 25 years old. Starting tight end Brandon Chapman, a sixth-year senior, is 24. So is starting defensive tackle Miles Fox, a 2020 All-ACC honoree who played previously at Old Dominion.

Hartman is 22 years old and already has started games in four consecutive seasons at Wake Forest, yet because of a redshirt season in 2019 and the NCAA rules related to the COVID-shortened 2020 season (basically, everyone got a free year), Hartman still is technically only a redshirt sophomore. He will be eligible to return to the Demon Deacons in both 2022 and 2023, meaning he could start games for Wake in six straight seasons.

Hartman’s top wide receivers are Jaquarii Roberson (23 years old) and A.T. Perry (22). Like Hartman, both are All-ACC candidates. Starting running back Christian Beal-Smith is 22. On defense, starting linebacker Luke Masterson and starting rover Traveon Redd are both 23 years old. Starting cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor will turn 23 in January.

Finally, as Brown mentioned in his press conferences this week, this Wake team is really good at some of the same things where the Tar Heels are struggling. Here are three quick examples:

Turnovers.

Wake Forest has the best turnover margin (plus-10) in the ACC this season, as the Demon Deacons are tied for the fewest giveaways (seven) and have by far the most takeaways (17 total: nine fumble recoveries, eight interceptions). At minus-2 (12 giveaways, 10 takeaways) in the turnover department, UNC ranks in the middle of the ACC pack.

“They are forcing turnovers on their defense, and they’re playing really, really good in red zone defense,” Brown said. “Those are the two things we’re not doing as well defensively as they are.”

Special teams.

In ESPN’s efficiency rankings, Wake Forest ranks #2 nationally in special teams, behind only Michigan. UNC ranks 84th, or well below the FBS average.

One of Wake’s best players is veteran kicker Nick Sciba, who booted the game-winning field goal in the final minute of the Deacons’ 37-34 victory over Louisville earlier this season. The ACC’s leading scorer (13-14 FGs, 40-40 PATs, 79 points) so far this season and the Deacs’ all-time points leader, Sciba has a chance to finish as the most accurate field goal kicker in NCAA history. The all-time leader is at 90 percent; after a rare (and meaningless) miss last week in a 45-7 domination of Duke, which broke a streak of 24 straight makes, Sciba is at 89.7 percent for his career.

Meanwhile, in Wake’s wild 70-56 victory at Army, the Deacons made arguably the biggest play of the game on special teams. Midway through the third quarter, with the Deacs clinging to a 35-28 lead, Army initially lined up for a field goal, then shifted into an unusual formation with the holder (the team’s backup quarterback) taking a deep snap. In an amazing play you had to see to believe, Redd turned a possible surprise, game-tying Army touchdown pass into an incredible, 83-yard pick-six for the Deacs, for a 14-point swing that turned out to be the game’s final margin.

Penalties.

Wake Forest has the third-fewest number of penalties (41 for 369 yards) in the ACC this season. UNC has the second-most penalties (58 for 548 yards) in the ACC this season.

Pick your favorite cliché here. The Demon Deacons play high-IQ football. They don’t beat themselves. If you’re going to beat them, you’re going to have it earn it, because they’re not going to do you many favors with a lack of discipline, missed assignments or other mental mistakes.

That’s the backdrop for this edition of Wake Forest-UNC. Going back to the late 1800s, the Tar Heels have won roughly two-thirds (70-36-2) of their gridiron matchups in this rivalry, but historical references clearly don’t seem to apply very well to this particular group of Demon Deacons.

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David Glenn (DavidGlennShow.com, @DavidGlennShow) is an award-winning author, broadcaster, editor, entrepreneur, publisher, speaker, writer and university lecturer (now at UNC Wilmington) who has covered sports in North Carolina since 1987.

The founding editor and long-time owner of the ACC Sports Journal and ACCSports.com, he also has contributed to the Durham Herald-Sun, ESPN Radio, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Raycom Sports, SiriusXM and most recently The Athletic. From 1999-2020, he also hosted the David Glenn Show, which became the largest sports radio program in the history of the Carolinas, syndicated in more than 300 North Carolina cities and towns, plus parts of South Carolina and Virginia.