This is the conclusion of a three-part series on cold fusion. Part I covered the science and Part II discussed the history of efforts to entice atomic nuclei to fuse a low temperature, a potential pathway to nearly limitless and clean energy. I would be pleased if you followed the links and started at the beginning of the series. However, if you don’t have the time or inclination, below is the nickel summary of Parts I and II.
Fusion of smaller nuclei into larger ones is what powers both stars and hydrogen bombs. Since they contain positively-charged protons, repulsive forces make it extremely difficult to bring nuclei into close proximity. The repulsive force between nuclei is called the coulombic barrier. If you are somehow able overcome the coulombic barrier and bring them close enough together, then an attractive force between the nuclei kicks in and they will fuse. The current laws of physics tell you that it is necessary to heat nuclei to millions of degrees to overcome this barrier with one rather fascinating caveat. A phenomenon known as quantum tunneling can allow a nucleus, especially a small one such as a hydrogen nucleus, to “cheat” a bit and surmount the coulombic barrier even while having an insufficient, but still a rather high, level of energy. Despite the fact that the laws of physics say that it is impossible, experimental physicists have been attempting to achieve fusion at “cold” temperatures for at least a century. The dynamic of theoretical physicists stating that things are impossible and experimental physicists plugging away to prove them wrong has existed since the dawn of physics and the experimentalists have enjoyed a number of victories along the way.
Over the past 100 years, several groups of experimental physicists have reported that they had achieved cold fusion in their laboratories. In all of these cases, attempts by other researchers to reproduce their results, a key milestone in any scientific advance, have not been sufficiently successful for the original claims to become broadly accepted. Due to these past “failures”, the term “cold fusion” has fallen out of favor and work in this arena is now typically referred to as low energy nuclear reactions or LENR. The latest LENR efforts to attract media attention have been the work of Andrea Rossi, an Italian inventor who was granted a patent for a fluid heater by the U.S. Patent Office in August of 2015. The heat generated in Rossi’s device is purported to arise from a nuclear fusion process occurring at low temperatures, possibly the fusion of nickel and hydrogen to make copper.
As expected, Rossi’s claims have inspired other researchers to attempt to reproduce his results. Their efforts have been made more difficult due to an apparent unwillingness by Rossi to disclose many of the details of his work. The lack of disclosure by Rossi is driving a high level of skepticism regarding his claims. At present, Rossi has stated that he is seven months into a yearlong test of his fluid heater and that he will release more information at the conclusion of the test.
Now comes the fun part for me. Since this is a science commentary column rather than a peer-reviewed journal, I get to engage in some speculation. I’ll begin with with my views on the arguments for and against the possibility of cold fusion.
For:
- Accumulation of research
Over the past 100 years, different research groups in different labs in different countries with different approaches have reported observations of cold fusion. To discount all of these results requires the assumption that all of the research groups were either mistaken or dishonest.
- Physics Isn’t Finished
The current laws of physics do an outstanding job of describing most, but not all, of the processes in the universe. For example, we still do not have a complete understanding of gravity and need to posit yet-to-be-found dark matter to make the equations work. Experimental efforts to achieve cold fusion have focused on the behavior of closely-packed hydrogen atoms trapped within metals. Since we know there are some gaps our understanding of the universe, perhaps there are aspects of the behavior of hydrogen nuclei within metals that represent another gap.
- Statistical Mechanics
As I have been writing this series, I keep thinking back to a lecture I had in a statistical mechanics class many years ago. The professor was talking about the distribution of air molecules floating about the room and noted that each of the gazillion possible configurations could be assigned statistical probability of occurring. As oxygen-breathing animals, we can take solace in the fact that the most statistically probable states are the ones in which the air molecules are evenly distributed in the volume of the room. We then calculated the small but non-zero probability that all of the air molecules in the room could migrate to one corner causing all of us in the room to die of asphyxiation. The professor closed out the lesson by explaining that if we stayed in the room long enough that this unlikely but not impossible circumstance would some day occur. It was a good lecture.
Now let’s consider the potential behavior of hydrogen atoms trapped within a rod of metal through the lens of statistical mechanics. There are an infinite number of configurations that hydrogen atoms can assume within a metal rod. In most of these configurations, all of the hydrogen atoms would be too far away from one another and also too far away from the metal atoms for fusion to take place. But perhaps there are some configurations, aided perhaps by quantum tunneling, for which some of the nuclei do come close enough to fuse and that this is the basis for the occasional claims of cold fusion.
Against:
- Failure to Reproduce Results
Each time that a researcher claims to have achieved cold fusion, multiple labs try to reproduce the results. This never seems to work out very well. These are smart people with state-of-the-art equipment, so it seems that they should have a good chance of reproducing valid results.
- Physics is Pretty Good
The physics behind the coulombic barrier is well established and is very effective in predicting the behavior of atoms and subatomic particles in many situations. Thus, claims of having circumvented it should be carefully reviewed.
- The Evidence of Fusion Should be Easy to Detect
All of the possible permutations of fusion, cold or hot, leave behind evidence that seems like it should not be hard to find. If fusion is occurring, then some combination of heat, helium, heavier metal atoms, heavier metal isotopes, gamma rays, and/or tritium ions should be produced. Scientists have a wide array of very sensitive analytical techniques to monitor for all of these fusion byproducts. Perhaps the conundrum is that even a tiny amount of fusion creates a tremendous amount of heat but only miniscule amounts of the various byproducts. If you were looking for changes in metal composition or the distribution of metal isotopes, it would probably make sense to run your device for a long time so that changes would become easier to see. It occurs to me that this is a possible explanation for the lengthy duration of Rossi’s purported yearlong test run.
Conclusion and Potential Implications:
I do not have sufficient information to feel confident about making a prediction about whether or not Rossi has achieved cold fusion in his fluid heater. I will continue to follow that story with interest. However, I am open to the possibility that cold fusion can be achieved and may well have been achieved in one or more past or current efforts.
Whether or not my optimism is misplaced, cold fusion studies or LENR, whichever moniker you prefer, is a legitimate field of study and should be treated as such. Basic research in experimental physics has broadened our knowledge of the universe and provided the foundation for the modern world’s high-tech devices. The detailed study of the behavior and properties of hydrogen atoms confined within metal matrices may someday reveal a viable path to cold fusion or it may lead to some unexpected discovery with beneficial outcomes. Furthermore, given the critical state of our energy and environmental issues across the globe, research into this potential source of clean and nearly limitless energy must be pursued even if the chances of success are remote.
A viable system for cold fusion would allow humanity to generate nearly-free electricity. Below are my musings on the rather outsized implications of this scenario.
- Coal and natural gas burning power plants would be rapidly retrofitted with cold fusion heaters that would work as a drop in technology for the rest of the power plant. This would result a rapid shutdowns of coal mining and natural gas drilling operations. While this would be good news for the climate, it would be economically disruptive and socially dislocating.
- Personal automobiles would switch over to electric power causing the price of petroleum to crash.
- Desalinating water would become economically viable. This would dramatically increase freshwater availability along coastlines in places like California and Saudi Arabia and be boon for food supply by increasing the availability of irrigation water.
- Home heating would all convert to electrical resistance.
- The increased use of electricity would require a dramatic expansion and overhaul of the power grids around the world.
I have thoroughly enjoyed writing this series as well as the feedback and questions I have received. As always, I welcome your comments and would also be interested in receiving your predictions on how the invention of cold fusion could change the world.
Jeff Danner talked about cold fusion with Aaron Keck on WCHL.
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