No. 6 seed UNC will begin its NCAA Tournament journey Thursday in Greenville, S.C. when it faces No. 11 seed VCU in the first round. The Rams enter the field with a 27-7 overall record and 15-3 mark in the Atlantic 10. They defeated Duquesne, St. Joseph’s and Dayton to win their second consecutive Atlantic 10 Tournament title last week.
If you aren’t familiar with VCU, here’s a quick breakdown:
Head coach: The son of a former National Coach of the Year, Phil Martelli, Jr. is in his first season with VCU. His debut campaign with the Rams is only his third overall as a head coach, but Martelli has already experienced plenty of success. He won 43 games across two seasons with Bryant, leading the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in 2025 while being named America East Coach of the Year. Prior to earning the head coaching job, Martelli had spent the previous five seasons as a Bryant assistant, during which time the program went to the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever.
What’s the history? This will be the first time UNC and VCU will have played in men’s basketball, despite the two schools’ campuses being less than 200 miles apart.
Player to watch: Terrence Hill, Jr. may only have started two of VCU’s 34 games this season, but that hasn’t stopped the sophomore guard from emerging as the Rams’ leading scorer (14.4 points per game) and assister (2.8 per game). He was named first team All-Atlantic 10 as well as the league’s Most Improved Player and Sixth Man of the Year. Hill is a dangerous scorer in multiple areas, shooting 36.1 percent on three-pointers, 62.8 percent on twos and 85.5 percent on free throws. And he does all this in just 24 minutes per game!
March memories: VCU is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament and certainly knows a thing or two about knocking off big-name programs. In fact, some of the Rams’ greatest wins ever came as a No. 11 seed. In 2007, Eric Maynor – who would end his time in Richmond as the program’s all-time leading scorer – delivered a dagger to No. 6 Duke in the first round with a mid-range jumper in the final seconds, sealing an upset win. In a strange twist of fate, Maynor’s shot came over current Blue Devil head coach Jon Scheyer.
Just four years later, VCU would put together another thrilling March run. The Rams entered the 2011 tournament as one of the last four teams into the field and played in the first ever First Four in Dayton. Had it been one year earlier, the Rams would not have made the tournament.
But despite grumblings that VCU was not fit for the field, the Rams would string together wins against fellow No. 11 seed USC, No. 6 Georgetown, No. 3 Purdue and No. 10 Florida State on their way to the Elite Eight. There, head coach Shaka Smart’s team built a 14-point halftime lead against No. 1 Kansas and held on in the second half for a 71-61 win, sending the Rams to their first ever Final Four. VCU has been back to the tournament 11 times since then, but it’s hard to imagine a more memorable March.
Foul play: The free throw line could be the deciding factor in Thursday’s game. The Rams have shot more free throws (863 in 34 games) than any other team in the Atlantic 10 this season. That works out to about 25 free throw attempts per game, which puts VCU solidly in the nation’s top 25. On the other side, UNC only allows opponents an average of 15 free throws per game, the 11th fewest among all Division 1 programs. If the Rams were to stay on average and attempt 25 free throws Thursday, they would become just the second team all season long to shoot at least that many against UNC, and the first to do so since Radford on Nov. 11. Needless to say, more VCU trips to the line is not a recipe for success for Carolina; the three ACC teams which shot the most free throws against the Tar Heels (Stanford, Miami and Clemson) all beat them.
Long distance connections: VCU will bring a capable three-point shooting team to Greenville Thursday, and that could spell trouble for UNC. The Rams rank third in the Atlantic 10 and inside the top 50 nationally by shooting 36.4 percent from downtown. Terrence Hill, Nyk Lewis and Jadrian Tracey all shoot at least 35 percent on two or more attempts per game. Then there’s forward Lazar Djokovic, who doesn’t shoot many threes but still knocks them down at a 35.6 percent rate. Guard Brandon Jennings takes even fewer but shoots even better: 43.4 percent. Carolina’s struggles to defend the three this season are well known by now, but Clemson provided another reminder in the ACC Tournament by shooting 47.4 percent (9-19) from behind the arc on its way to the semifinals. Four of UNC’s last five opponents have shot at least 35 percent on threes, and 10 have cracked 40 percent this season. In those 10 games, UNC is 4-6.
All in the margins: Carolina has managed to avoid the turnover bug for the most part this season, but has struggled in recent games. The Tar Heels have had a negative turnover margin in three of their last four contests and have given the ball away 24 times across the last two games. That could be blood in the water for the Rams, which rank third in the Atlantic 10 in turnover margin per game (+1.41) and fourth in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.34). VCU forces nearly 12 turnovers per game, and Jennings’ 1.7 steals per game rank fifth among all players in the Atlantic 10. Ironically, UNC is 7-2 in nine games this season when committing 12 or more turnovers, but the recent trends are reason for concern.
What are the odds? As of today, UNC is a 2.5-point favorite in the game.
Featured image via Associated Press/Lexie Knight
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