No. 9 seed Michigan State stands in the way of No. 1 seed Carolina and a second Sweet 16 berth in three seasons. The Spartans defeated No. 8 Mississippi State handily in the first round, winning 69-51 without ever trailing. The Tar Heels have not faced off against Michigan State under head coach Hubert Davis.
If you haven’t watched the Spartans this season, here’s a quick rundown:
Head coach: Tom Izzo. One of the elder statesmen in college basketball, Izzo has been helming the Spartans since 1995. Before taking the head coaching position, Izzo served as an assistant at Michigan State for 12 years. The last time Michigan State took the floor without Izzo on the bench, Ronald Reagan was president and Michael Jordan was suiting up for the Tar Heels. The Spartans have made 26 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances under Izzo.
What’s the history? UNC and Michigan State have met numerous times in both the regular season and postseason. Carolina leads the series 12-4 since the 1949-50 season and is 5-0 against the Spartans in the NCAA Tournament, including a second-round win in 2007 and a win in the national championship game two years later. Michigan State won the most recent meeting in 2017, beating Carolina 63-45 in the PK80 Tournament in Portland, OR.
Player to watch: Tyson Walker. Walker is a fifth-year senior playing the best basketball of his career for the Spartans. After spending two seasons at Northeastern, he transferred to Michigan State prior to the 2021-22 season. He’s made 95 starts since arriving in East Lansing and is averaging a team-high 18.2 points per game this season, his best mark as a Spartan. He is a finalist for the Jerry West Award, given to the best shooting guard in men’s Division 1 college basketball — a list that also includes Carolina’s R.J. Davis. Against Mississippi State on Thursday, Walker scored 19 points and didn’t turn the ball over once. He’s reached double figures in all but one game this season and scored 30 points twice — though both of those efforts came in losses.
Michigan State guard Tyson Walker drives to the basket pass Mississippi State forward D.J. Jeffries during the first half of a first-round college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 21, 2024 in Charlotte, N.C. (Image via Associated Press/Chris Carlson)
Stats to watch: Michigan State’s offense is not reliant on the three-pointer; it shoots just 18 threes per game, which ranks 322nd in Division 1. But when the Spartans do choose to shoot, they’re very efficient. Michigan State makes 36.2 percent of its threes, 54th in Division 1. Four Spartan starters – Walker, Malik Hall, A.J. Hoggard and Jaden Akins – shoot at least 34 percent from downtown. Michigan State shot more threes than usual against Mississippi State in the first round (23), but still made 10 of them. Walker and Akins each knocked down three.
Like all the best Big Ten teams, Michigan State plays a tough brand of defense. Per KenPom.com, Michigan State ranks sixth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency — just a shade above No. 7 Carolina. The Spartans’ bread and butter is forcing difficult outside shots: on the season, opponents only make about 15 two-point shots per game against them, the 14th-lowest mark in Division 1 (UNC made 24 twos against Wagner). Combine that with a three-point defense which allows opponents to shoot just 32.4 percent from outside, and it all adds up to 65.5 points allowed per game, 20th-best in the nation.
As you’d expect from a team with experienced guards – Walker and Hoggard have a combined nine years of college basketball under their belts – Michigan State is one of the best assisting teams in the country and takes good care of the ball. The Spartans’ 16.2 assists per game ranks 27th in Division 1, 72 spots ahead of Carolina. They rank third in the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio and only average about 10 giveaways per game. UNC is right there with the Spartans in that metric, averaging 10.3. But Michigan State turned it over 13 times against Mississippi State on Thursday, and Carolina’s aggressive fast break would love nothing more than easy points in transition.
Here we slow again: Like Wagner before it, Michigan State plays at a methodical pace. KenPom ranks the Spartans 310th overall in adjusted tempo, among the slowest teams remaining in the tournament field. Carolina likes to run, but was still able to beat Wagner at the Seahawks’ pace on Thursday. The 90-62 win was played at the third-slowest pace the Tar Heels have seen all season — only wins at Clemson and Virginia were played more slowly. The Spartans may end up controlling the tempo on Saturday, but that won’t necessarily determine the outcome.
Still dangerous: Michigan State may not bring the best record into Saturday’s contest (20-14 overall, 10-10 in Big Ten play), but the Spartans have as much skill as any team in the country. They returned nearly 75 percent of their scoring from the team which made the Sweet 16 last season (as a No. 7 seed) and began this season ranked No. 4 in the nation. Early losses – including a shocker at home to James Madison in the season opener – dropped the Spartans out of the polls, but they’ve recovered enough to put themselves a win away from another Sweet 16. Tom Izzo’s roster is stacked with talent: 10 players who were ranked in the Top 100 of their respective recruiting classes. That doesn’t even include their top scorer in Walker, the transfer from Northeastern.
What are the odds? As of Friday, UNC is favored by four points in the game. Carolina is 26-6 as the betting favorite this season.
For information on how to watch Saturday’s game, click here.
Featured image via Associated Press/Chris Carlson
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