While the concept of preseason polls may seem silly — how can anyone rank teams that haven’t played any games yet? — the Associated Press preseason college football poll has developed an impressive reputation over the last two decades in at least one way.
In 16 of the last 18 seasons, college football’s eventual national champion has come from among the teams ranked in the top seven of the initial AP (media) poll, which is published almost five months before the College Football Playoff’s championship game.
If this prognostication theme holds true again this season, the 2022 title will go to one of the following seven programs: Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Notre Dame, Texas A&M or Utah. Those were the top seven teams, in order, in Monday’s preseason AP rankings.
Since 2003, the only two exceptions to this riveting rule are stories North Carolina and Atlantic Coast Conference football fans know well.
In 2010, Auburn went 14-0 and won the national championship after starting the season ranked No. 22 in the preseason AP poll. The Tigers’ head coach that year was Gene Chizik, now in his second stint as UNC’s defensive coordinator, and their star quarterback was controversial junior college transfer Cam Newton, who went on to star for the NFL’s Carolina Panthers.
In 2013, Florida State went 14-0 and won the national championship after starting the season ranked No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. The Seminoles’ head coach that year was Jimbo Fisher, who’s now the head coach at highly ranked Texas A&M, and their star quarterback was controversial redshirt freshman Jameis Winston. Like Newton, Winston won the Heisman Trophy during his championship campaign.
Even the best crystal balls also can turn cloudy, of course.
In last year’s preseason AP football poll, for example, the only three ranked ACC teams were Clemson at No. 3, UNC at No. 10 and Miami at No. 14. The Tigers had their most disappointing season in a decade, and the Tar Heels and Hurricanes slumped and fell out of the Top 25 entirely. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and NC State, all unranked in the preseason last August, ultimately earned their way into the postseason Top 25.
This year, besides Clemson at No. 4, the ACC is represented by NC State at No. 13, Miami at No. 16, Pitt at No. 17 and Wake Forest at No. 22. The only league with more preseason Top 25 teams than the ACC’s five was the Southeastern Conference, with six.
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