Art Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler.
Carolina still has a chance to make the NCAA Tournament, but it is slim.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), implemented more than 10 years ago, is the most publicized criterion for at-large bids to the NCAA tourney due to its confusing Quad system of wins and losses home and away and at neutral sites.
The reason the NET has been so relevant to UNC basketball the last two years is because the Tar Heels have struggled to win Quad 1 games (at home vs. NET top 30 opponents, on the road against top 75s or on neutral courts vs. top 50s). And it plays heavily into their current chances after finishing the regular season at 19-12 with a single Quad 1 win against Virginia at home.
A year ago, the Heels had better overall and conference records heading into the March 5 game at Duke, where the 94-81 upset victory assured their NCAA entry with what turned out to be a No. 8 seed and from where they nearly ran the table to the national championship.
This time it is a much tougher putt since their numbers are less in their favor after going 11-9 in the ACC compared to 15-5 in 2022. But thanks to a good draw in this week’s ACC tournament, there is a narrow path that includes more than just the NET ranking that currently stands at No. 49, down from 44 before the home loss to the Blue Devils Saturday night. Had Carolina won the game and moved up five spots, it would have assured an at-large bid.
But there are other factors. At ESPN Game Day on the Smith Center court Saturday morning, the panel that included analysts Jay Bilas, LePhonso Ellis and Seth Greenberg all held up “IN” signs when asked if North Carolina would make it. And none qualified his pick by saying UNC had to win that night.
Bilas said, “They have no bad losses,” compared to getting blown out by Tennessee and Kentucky on neutral courts, at Miami and Wake Forest and at home against Duke last season. So Bilas, at least, seemed to think that works in their favor this time. In fact, UNC’s worst loss was by 12 at Indiana after a grueling road trip.
The Tar Heels will likely face 10th seeded Boston College in the ACC second round Wednesday night, and BC has a NET of 166, which won’t hurt. If they win that, they play No. 2 seed Virginia (NET 30) in Thursday’s quarterfinal and that could be their second Quad 1 win over UVa.
Beating Clemson, with a Quad 2 NET of 61, in the semifinals would help further and mean they might get a bid by merely reaching the championship game Saturday night. It also depends on what other “bubble teams” do. For example, Michigan lost at Indiana on Sunday, which could help Carolina’s chances.
So, the Heels just need to keep winning and see what happens.
Featured image via Todd Melet
Chapelboro.com does not charge subscription fees, and you can directly support our efforts in local journalism here. Want more of what you see on Chapelboro? Let us bring free local news and community information to you by signing up for our biweekly newsletter.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe:
Related Stories
‹
Chansky's Notebook: NIT Not for AllArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Playing in the NIT is good for some teams, not so good for others. Now that all the hubbub over UNC snubbing the National […]
Chansky's Notebook: Beware the UnforeseenArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Unintended consequences have become the cancer of college athletics. Sometimes you have to wonder how smart are some of the people who make rules […]
Chansky's Notebook: Stuck Between MarchesArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. The good and bad of Tar Heel hoops is on public display. The truth about Carolina basketball, one of the biggest brands in sports, […]
Chansky's Notebook: Last GaspArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Pick your poison why Carolina is (likely) not going back to the Big Dance. Unless the NCAA tournament bubble explodes due to global warming, […]
Chansky's Notebook: Fleet Feet, Tender AnkleArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Carolina can’t seem to catch a break. The Tar Heels opened the ACC tournament with one of their most impressive games of the season. […]
Chansky's Notebook: Must-Win MatchArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Buckle up, Boston College will be one tough out tonight. The Tar Heels have not lost their opening game of the ACC tournament since […]
Chansky's Notebook: True Vindication?Art Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. Who has the mental edge going into this Carolina-Duke game? Paolo Banchero, the freshman first pick in the 2022 NBA draft, was right in […]
Chansky's Notebook: Losing is WinningArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. The Tar Heels are better since February 4, but so is Duke. The preseason question about the Blue Devils was not whether they had […]
Chansky's Notebook: High Slamma JammaArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. If the Virginia game was weird, this one was other-worldly. Armando Bacot hit a single free throw to keep him from going scoreless for […]
Chansky's Notebook: Nothing But The TruthArt Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler. It’s time to evaluate UNC Basketball through the lens of reality. As the Tar Heels head into the eight days that will determine their […]
›
Wes Miller!
I like our chances, both to get an at large bid (with a finals berth in the ACC) and to take home the tournament crown. Tall order, but as mentioned, we have a pretty good path, and there is no team we cannot win against.
Just shoot 36% from three and it’s in the bag 🙂
As a Dukie… I was at the Final Four game and have to say that the UNC fans sitting next to me were very cordial and respectful. It was pure fandom and aggression during the game…as it should be… But before and after the game the folks next to me were gracious and totally respectful.
That being said… Absolutely nothing can completely erase the pain of losing Coach Ks two big “last games”… Last game at Cameron and last game ever. However, the best case scenario (short of eliminating UNC in the tournament and winning the championship…) I could imagine would be sweeping the Tarheels and eliminating them from the NCAA tournament after they were preseason #1, becoming the first team in the modern era to not make the tournament after being #1 preseason.
So despite my affection for the fans I got to know and appreciate personally last year… I will be rooting for celebrating the potential epic failure and embarrassment of the program should they not make the field. GTHC, Go Duke… And screw Bacot, eat spit!
“Absolutely nothing can completely erase the pain of losing Coach Ks two big “last games””
Forever. It will be with you forever.