Chansky's Notebook: Nothing But The Truth

Art Chansky’s Sports Notebook is presented by The Casual Pint. YOUR place for delicious pub food paired with local beer. Choose among 35 rotating taps and 200+ beers in the cooler.

It’s time to evaluate UNC Basketball through the lens of reality.

As the Tar Heels head into the eight days that will determine their postseason fate for 2023, let’s look at the sample sizes over Hubert Davis’ first two years on the job. Doing so may better prepare alumni and fans for what’s coming.

Carolina had an unprecedented four-week run that no one can ever take away. Let’s call it March Magic that included two historic wins over Duke and left the Tar Heels one half and three points away from an NCAA championship.

But the big picture shows that to be an anomaly.

Those preceding four months have actually carried over to the first four months of the current season. The eight months have produced an 0-17 record against Quad 1 opposition. That’s no lie.

Yes, Brady Manek emerged over the last half of last season as a dynamic outside shooter and a dude that has not been found anywhere else in the program since his departure. However responsible the bearded wonder is for the failures of the current season is debatable, since there are other reasons.

March Magic was gloriously welcomed, but it was unsustainable and should have been obvious to all of us.

Through 26 games a year ago, the Tar Heels were 18-8 and 10-5 in the ACC. They were shooting 45 percent from the floor and 38 percent from 3-point range. Manek had taken the most shots for the same percentage, and the attention he drew helped Caleb Love, R. J. Davis and Leaky Black all shoot better than 40 percent from outside, higher than Manek albeit with fewer attempts.

That trio is currently averaging 32 percent, close to 10 percentage points worse than a year ago. As of yet, Love has not heated up like March Magic, R.J. Davis has played some of the season with an injured finger on his shooting hand and Leaky Black has already shot 17 more 3-balls than all of last season, some of them bad shots for him. Pete Nance, who was a 45-percent outside shooter at Northwestern last year and was expected to pick up some of Manek’s slack, is shooting 28 percent from the arc.

Add in Hubert Davis’ learning curve as a head coach, not the same chemistry and effort as the end of last year and possible distractions from NIL and other off-court stuff, and his second team is about where it should be, all things considered.

Carolina’s realistic goal for this season should have begun with merely making a return to the NCAA Tournament, and that is still a possibility.

Virginia is UNC’s last chance for a Quad 1 win, as was Duke on March 5, 2022. Neither Virginia nor Carolina has an NBA draftable on its roster. But the Cavaliers do have Tony Bennett, among the best coaches in America over the last five years.

The game is at the Smith Center, which is always worth 5-7 points, so the Tar Heels must use that to keep their adjusted dream alive.

Featured image via Todd Melet

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Chansky’s Notebook: Nothing But The Truth

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