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Whoever wins the war, wins the game.

Duke and Carolina have returned to their favorite place, both top ten teams heading into the first match-up of the season. Who wins Saturday evening at the Smith Center depends on who plays harder and more physically.

The Blue Devils shoot the ball better from the floor and 3-point line. They make more assists and have a superior assist-turnover ratio. Finesse is the name of their game.

The Tar Heels average more rebounds and have a larger margin on the boards. They also control the offensive glass with 70 more total rebounds and thus lead in second-chance points, where UNC must reign supreme.

Both teams have eight-man rotations with the Tar Heels known to play as many as 10 guys. Carolina has slightly more depth and girth, but Duke’s best big man is a 7-footer who shoots 37 percent from beyond the arc.

For the 7th-ranked Blue Devils to win their third straight game in Chapel Hill, they will have to make a higher percentage than No. 3 Carolina, hold their own on the boards and stay out of foul trouble.

The Tar Heels have to take it inside, draw the defense and make more free throws. Their shooters will have to make a decent percentage from outside on open shots created by traffic in the paint, not rely too much on R.J. Davis’s ability to score from anywhere on the floor and get good shots for Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan.

UNC’s goal is to create contact in the lane, get Duke into foul trouble and force the Blue Devils to go to their shorter bench. The Heels have to make the game a war, utilize their size and guard aggressively outside without fouling.

Armando Bacot sets high screens and creates driving lanes for Davis, Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble, but Mondo also needs to make his presence felt underneath rolling hard to the basket more than he has in recent games.

Kyle Filipowski is Duke’s star with his outside shooting and scoring on pocket passes from guards Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain, Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster. The Blue Devils will also play zone and see if Carolina handles it better than at Georgia Tech.

The capacity crowd can also be a factor, helping their team protect their house and widen its first-place lead in the ACC. For them it also must be a war, blow the Teflon roof off the Dean Dome and force the Blue Devils to play in the loudest and most hostile arena they have encountered this season.

 

Featured image via Dakota Moyer

Art Chansky is a veteran journalist who has written ten books, including best-sellers “Game Changers,” “Blue Bloods,” and “The Dean’s List.” He has contributed to WCHL for decades, having made his first appearance as a student in 1971. His “Sports Notebook” commentary airs daily on the 97.9 The Hill WCHL and his “Art’s Angle” opinion column runs weekly on Chapelboro.

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