How Duke can beat Carolina. Part 1 of two parts.

The greatest rivalry in college basketball resumes Thursday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium, home of the consensus pick to win the 2017 national championship but currently languishing at No. 18 in the national rankings.

The Blue Devils can certainly beat the eighth-ranked Tar Heels on their home floor, but it is never a guarantee against a team that is not intimidated by the Crazies or the Duke mystique. With Coach K back from his latest back surgery, the Devils seem to be hitting their stride and playing with renewed confidence.

It began by stealing a win at Wake Forest almost two weeks ago, followed by an impressive victory at Notre Dame. But Duke has to guard against false confidence from defeating a Wake team that Carolina ran out of Joel Coliseum and beating Pitt in a close game the same way the Tar Heels did earlier in the week.

First, Duke still has trouble scoring or guarding from the post, where its biggest players are true forwards Amile Jefferson and Harry Giles. Unless they play literally way over their heads, Jefferson and Giles are no match inside for Meeks, Hicks, Bradley and Maye.

But it’s nothing new that the Blue Devils will shoot a ton of three-pointers against UNC and that they must make a good percentage to stay in the game and win it late in the second half. To that end, Luke Kennard is among the best shooters and scorers in the nation, and Grayson Allen finally found his touch against Pitt and played a game with a smile, rather than a smirk, on his face.

Duke also must take care of the ball better than it has this season. The Devils have a weak assist-to-turnover ratio and in Krzyzewski’s absence committed almost as many errors as made baskets off assists. They have played better in K’s return, but Carolina will present a much tougher defense. So shoot it in, get SOME rebounds and take care of the ball are Duke’s keys to victory.

Tomorrow, we’ll look at what the Tar Heels must do.

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