Chansky's Notebook: Numbers on the Line

Carolina will have to shoot the ball better, no doubt about it.

Even if Armando Bacot plays at Louisville Saturday, he will not be fully recovered from his sprained ankle for weeks, maybe deeper into the regular season. It was last summer before AB was 100 percent back from spraining his ankle at the Final Four.

That will put even more of an onus on the Tar Heels to shoot the ball well since rebounding, which is not as strong this season, will be more difficult for them on both ends of the court. And making a decent percentage from the floor depends very much on shot selection.

R.J. Davis is one player who knows which shots he prefers to take and has bettered his shooting by 5 percentage points since the season started. Due in part to a nagging injury, Davis began shooting poorly and has gradually improved his numbers over the 17 games so far.

After the first eight games in November, Davis was shooting under 40 percent from the floor and under 30 percent from 3-point range. His streak-shooting running mate Caleb did a little better overall but worse from the arc, making only 25 percent of his long ball attempts.

Six games later by the end of December, both had improved their percentages slightly. Through the Virginia game on Tuesday, Davis was up to 44 percent overall and 36 percent from downtown. Love’s numbers were just under 40 percent and still less than 30 percent from 3-point range.

Aside from getting completely healed, Davis has been working with assistant coach Jeff Lebo to determine which shots are going in the most. He makes a higher percentage from short range, but there is a difference from where and how he attempts outside shots – catch and release spotting up or coming off screens or finding himself wide open on the 3-point line.

“I’m a great shooter,” Davis said earlier this week. “But I do look at my percentages. Catch and release, I feel like I can make it and am making about 40 percent of those, a little better than standing on the (3-point) line or a foot behind it. I want to be more efficient where I shoot from.”

Lebo relies on grading tape and analytics to determine from where all the Tar Heels make their highest percentages.

And getting the ball in the right position is always important, but never more so than in the weeks to come as ACC play heats up and Bacot recovers to keep rebounding as many misses as possible.

Davis and Love both strive to meet their 2022 percentages of 36 percent from the 3-point line. As a team, Carolina shot 45 percent and 36 percent from outside after playing for the NCAA championship. The current Heels are shooting 46 percent overall but only 32 percent from the arc.

Featured image via Todd Melet

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Chansky’s Notebook: Numbers on the Line

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