The 2025 UNC football season is set to be one of the most consequential in program history. The Tar Heels have made a significant investment on the gridiron, bringing in Super Bowl champion head coach Bill Belichick to lead the team into a future dominated by NIL, revenue sharing and the transfer portal.
With kickoff less than two months away, here are three reasons to be confident in the Tar Heels:
The schedule plays in UNC’s favor
The Tar Heels’ 2025 schedule is not exactly a murderer’s row of competition. UNC has an even six-six split between home and road games, but three of the Tar Heels’ road contests will come inside the borders of North Carolina. In two of those games – Charlotte and Wake Forest – UNC can count on significant fan support. The other (NC State)? Perhaps not. Carolina’s three out-of-state trips see it visit UCF, Cal and Syracuse. Expecting to win two of those three is more than reasonable. Arguably the Tar Heels’ three toughest opponents in 2025 – TCU, Clemson and Duke – will all have to visit Kenan Stadium.
The sportsbooks have taken notice of this favorable draw. FanDuel sets the over/under line for UNC’s total wins in 2025 at 7.5 – more than the Tar Heels won in the entirety of 2024.
Intriguing defensive additions in the transfer portal
Belichick went straight to work after dotting the i’s on his UNC contract. The new head coach has engineered a massive overhaul of Carolina’s roster through the transfer portal. Particularly on the defensive side, his additions are enough to generate buzz.
Belichick secured the services of two talented linebackers – Washington’s Khmori House and Boise State’s Andrew Simpson – to replace the departing Power Echols (graduation) and Amare Campbell (transfer portal). House was good enough to see significant snaps for the Huskies as a true freshman in 2024, recording at least five total tackles in five different games. Simpson comes in with big game experience, having helped the Broncos reach the College Football Playoff last season. Prior to that, he’d been named a third team All-American as a redshirt sophomore in 2023. The duo of House and Simpson, as well as Nebraska transfer Mikai Gbayor, give UNC big play capability at the linebacker position.
Boise State’s Andrew Simpson is set to be a starter on UNC’s defense in 2025. (Image via Boise State Athletics/John Kelly)
Along the line of scrimmage, the addition of UConn transfer Pryce Yates at edge rusher is an interesting one. Ironically, UNC may have been motivated to earn Yates’ commitment after he and the Huskies terrorized the Tar Heel offense in the Fenway Bowl last December. Yates logged six total tackles (including three tackles for loss) in the 27-14 UConn victory. For a UNC defensive line which was gutted in the offseason (more on that later), Yates could be primed to play a major role in 2025.
Finally, UNC already seems pleased with its addition of defensive back Thad Dixon from Washington. The Tar Heels are so confident in Dixon’s abilities that he’s being sent as one of four player representatives for the program to the ACC Kickoff in Charlotte later this month. That trust, at least on paper, is well-earned: Dixon helped Washington reach the national championship game in his first season, then led the team with 10 pass break-ups in 2024 (no Tar Heel had more than eight). He looks to be a plug-and-play addition to UNC’s defensive backfield.
UNC was able to retain explosive talent at receiver
The transfer portal spares no one, least of all middling programs like UNC. But the Tar Heels were able to avoid any catastrophic departures in the wide receiver corps, where a talented crop of unproven youngsters is looking to take the next step. It seems the program has already tapped rising sophomore Jordan Shipp as its next WR1, as Shipp will also be representing the Tar Heels at the ACC Kickoff. His physical characteristics are certainly enough to draw attention: standing at nearly six-feet-two, Shipp has the length to go up and over most defensive backs.
Elsewhere, the return of rising junior Chris Culliver gives the Tar Heels explosive speed on both offense and special teams (Culliver scored twice on kickoff returns in 2024). Alex Taylor and Paul Billups are both intriguing underclassmen who hope to play larger roles in 2025. And don’t forget about Kobe Paysour, the veteran who initially entered the transfer portal before backing out and returning to Chapel Hill. Paysour was trending up early in the 2023 season after catching three touchdowns in five games, but a foot injury ended his season prematurely. The aftereffects of that injury, along with UNC’s run-heavy offense, caused a sharp drop in production in 2024 — Paysour didn’t catch a single touchdown. But with a completely healthy offseason under his belt, it’s fair to expect Paysour to look more like his 2023 self this season.
North Carolina wide receiver Kobe Paysour runs the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against South Carolina, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C. (AP Photo/Erik Verduzco)
And yet, this is the same team which finished 6-7 in 2024, looking lost more often than not. Many different coaches have tried and failed to place the Tar Heels among the ranks of college football’s elite, and all of them had more college experience than Bill Belichick. It begs the question: what exactly would be considered a “successful” season in Belichick’s first year?
Answers vary, depending on which section of the Carolina fanbase you ask (and, perhaps, how many adult beverages they’ve consumed). For now, it’s time to do away with any pipe dreams of UNC appearing in the College Football Playoff. Here are three reasons to pump the brakes on the Tar Heels:
How do the Tar Heels replace Omarion Hampton?
UNC has been blessed with elite running back talent in recent years, all the way back to Giovani Bernard’s time in Chapel Hill. Elijah Hood, T.J. Logan, Javonte Williams, Michael Carter and Omarion Hampton all oozed NFL talent. But at least for now, no such blue-chip prospect is sitting in UNC’s running back room. The perceived favorite for RB1 in 2025 is rising sophomore Davion “Bullet” Gause, a former four-star prospect who the Tar Heels kept away from the portal’s clutches in the offseason. Gause showed flashes of promise as a true freshman, rushing for 105 yards on just 16 carries against Charlotte after Hampton sat out much of the game due to an injury.
Running back Davion Gause (21) had the best performance of his young career against Charlotte last season. (Image via UNC Athletic Communications/Andy Mead)
But it must be said: that was Charlotte, one of the bottom-tier programs in FBS football. Gause would see a handful of touches each game to spare Hampton as the season progressed, but his first and only start was a dud: five rushes for 12 yards in the Fenway Bowl after Hampton had declared for the NFL Draft.
There are legitimate excuses for Gause’s poor showing: UNC’s offense was depleted by injuries by that point, so much so that fellow running back Caleb Hood had to step in at quarterback late in the game. Still, the difference between Gause and the All-American Hampton, who is now suiting up for the Los Angeles Chargers as a first-round NFL Draft pick, was obvious.
Gause is joined by Hood, junior college transfer Charleston French (10 rushes for 84 yards and a touchdown in his first year at UNC), Michigan transfer Benjamin Hall and decorated freshman Demon June in the running back room. Replicating Hampton’s bruising two years as the starter may be too much to ask for anyone in that group, but it’s possible UNC could pull a “Moneyball” – and recreate Hampton in the aggregate.
Unanswered questions at quarterback
UNC was hard-pressed to replace the NFL talents of Sam Howell and Drake Maye in 2024. The Tar Heels started three different quarterbacks in 13 games: Max Johnson started Week 1 before a gruesome leg injury ended his season, Conner Harrell started Weeks 2 and 3 before being benched, and Jacolby Criswell took over the rest of the way. With Harrell and Criswell gone via the portal and Johnson still on an arduous road to full recovery, it appears more new blood will take UNC’s first snap of 2025.
South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez brings starting experience into the quarterback room, though as a later portal addition, he was not able to participate in spring practice in Chapel Hill. Lopez’s numbers with the Jaguars are certainly enough to warrant QB1 consideration: more than 3,000 total yards of offense and 25 total touchdowns as the full-time starter in 2024. With Lopez leading the way, South Alabama scored 30 or more points seven times.
Quarterback Gio Lopez was one of the biggest names to sign with UNC out of the transfer portal. Is he the Tar Heels’ next QB1? (Image via South Alabama Athletics)
Lopez’s top challenger looks to be true freshman Bryce Baker, who arrived at Carolina with plenty of fanfare. Belichick went so far as to trot Baker out at midcourt of the Dean Smith Center while speaking to Tar Heel fans at halftime of a basketball game. Baker is talented enough that he drew the eye of richer programs than UNC: Penn State made a heavy push for him once former head coach Mack Brown was fired, but Baker elected to honor his commitment to Carolina.
Bryce Baker joins Bill Belichick on the Roy Williams Court after being introduced on Saturday to fans at the men’s basketball game. Baker signed his official commitment to play for UNC after delaying the formal step once Mack Brown was fired. (Image via Chapel Hill Media Group/Todd Melet)
But as talented as Baker and Lopez both seem to be, they bring with them more questions than answers: will Lopez’s game translate from the Sun Belt to the ACC? Will he have enough practice time to truly feel comfortable in the offense? As for Baker, is he ready to potentially take snaps on national television as a true freshman? Is either quarterback good enough to elevate what projects to be a very raw, unproven receiving corps?
If UNC is going to get where it wants to go in 2025, those questions will need to be answered, and soon.
What’s going on at defensive line?
No position group at UNC was as hard hit during the offseason as the defensive line. Some departures were expected: Jahvaree Ritzie, Des Evans, Kaimon Rucker and Kevin Hester were all out of eligibility. Some were disappointing, but not surprising: former five-star tackle Travis Shaw needed a fresh start somewhere else. Others were a gut punch: edge rusher Beau Atkinson, a bright young talent who looked to be one of UNC’s top returners, entered the portal after spring practice. Add in the departures of underclassmen Jaybron Harvey and Joel Starlings to the portal, and the Tar Heels don’t just have holes to plug; they have a brand-new boat to build.
Belichick has done his best to do that. The addition of Pryce Yates has already been discussed, and Delaware transfer Melkart Abou-Jaoude is an intriguing signing as well. Other transfers include East Carolina’s C.J. Mims, Florida’s D’Antre Robinson and Penn State’s Smith Vilbert and Joseph Mupoyi. So, the Tar Heels have bodies. But how well will they work together? And will that talent translate to results?
UNC’s struggles along the defensive line with highly-touted prospects (Shaw and Evans, to name a few) are well-known. There’s a strong argument to be made that the best Tar Heel defensive lineman of the Mack Brown 2.0 era – Kaimon Rucker – was an overlooked recruit who was not expected to get anywhere close to the type of level he reached with the Tar Heels.
Brown was fond of saying that if you can’t stop the run, you’re not going to win many football games. And while the Hall of Fame head coach isn’t in Chapel Hill anymore, those words still do ring true. UNC’s strength (or lack thereof) on the line of scrimmage could very well determine the outcome of the 2025 season.
Featured image via Associated Press/Erik Verduzco
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